The last time I wrote in this blog, it was last year, as Top Gun Maverick was soaring past $700 million in the U.S. I asked the question then, “Can Tom Cruise be stopped?”, and, well, the answer to that question might exist sooner than I thought.
Tom Cruise’s latest Mission Impossible film opened with “just” $235 million worldwide, $78.49 million of which is coming from the U.S.
In hindsight, it was hyperbolic of me to expect this to open to $125 million and $300 million+ worldwide.
But everything was here for Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 to open BIGGER. Amazing reviews, check! Amazing audience reactions, check! Franchise goodwill, check! Tom Cruise is also near a career-high right now.
I’m here to offer 3 reasons why Tom Cruise’s latest didn’t perform the best.
REASON #1 : LITTLE NEW TO OFFER, AS A TOM CRUISE FILM
It was unrealistic to expect this new Mission Impossible to receive a bump after Top Gun: Maverick last summer.
Unlike that sequel to a singular film from 1986, this is the 7th installment (!!) of a franchise which was already revived, and hit a critical/commercial peak already with the last film Mission Impossible: Fallout in 2018.
Now 7 movies in, we can count Tom Cruise has done over 12 Karate-chop running scenes, over 7 180-degree-turns with a motorcycle , and countless deadly stunts to show Tom Cruise and his constantly impressive “death wish”.
How many times has Ethan Hunt’s character been told the world will end if he doesn’t succeed? And that “nothing matters more than THIS mission”?
In short – despite how thrilling it still is – there’s nothing new, except even crazier stunts.
REASON #2: BUDGET IS WAY WAY TOO EXPENSIVE!
MI7 is falling victim to so many other blockbuster movies these days – they are way too expensive to justify the box office.
Yes – the box office for many movies these days looks high, but in order to break even, the expected box office should be at least 2.5x the budget. (this is based on marketing costs, and the fact that theaters take 1/2 the box office)
I call these 2023 films: “Disappointments in relation to costs”. See below for recent blockbusters, which all had astronomically high budgets due to COVID-related issues during filming.
These films all could have made money, if they had cost less.
| MOVIE | BUDGET | ESTIMATED BREAK EVEN # (BASED ON 2.5x RULE) | WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE | RESULT |
| The Little Mermaid | $250 million | $625 million | $575-600 million | DISAPPOINTMENT ($25-50 million loss) |
| Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts | $200 million | $500 million | $450-475 million | DISAPPOINTMENT ($25-50 million loss) |
| Fast X | $340 million | $825 million | $700-$725 million | FLOP ($100-$125 million loss) |
| The Flash | $220 million | $550 million | $250 million | FLOP ($200-300 million loss) |
| Indiana Jones: Dial Of Destiny | $300 million | $750 million | $450-500 million | FLOP ($250-300 million loss) |
| Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning | $290 million | $725 million | ? | ? |
So you might wonder: are studios just over estimating their box office? And could they get just as “good” a movie if they made something less expensive and more realistic?
In the end based on its opening, MI7 should end with around $700-750 million worldwide.
It will probably break even – but that’s not the way Tom Cruise is supposed to roll.
REASON #3: TOO MANY OTHER MOVIES / COMPETITION
Let’s address the Barbie-Oppenheimer elephant in the room. All the hype right now is around those two movies, and the industry is expecting a combined $200 million opening next weekend for the combined two films.
No matter how great Tom Cruise’s 7th film in this franchise is, both Barbie and Oppenheimer are so unique, different, and intriguing to adult audiences, that they’re sucking up all the air in the theater.
Coming out right after Indiana Jones 5 isn’t helping, as well as the new conservative anti-human-trafficking film Sound Of Freedom. Both of which will likely earn $150-$175 million each in the U.S.
Too many adult action thrillers playing in theaters right now.
Long story short, which ever Paramount Studios executive chose to place this Mission Impossible into this incredibly crowded release date really dropped the ball.
To end things on a positive note: because Dead Reckoning is a Part 1, the pieces are there for Part 2 to earn more!
These last two Mission Impossible movies were SO well loved (‘A’ grade audience scores for MI6 and MI7, both the highest in the series), that if MI8 opens with less competition, audiences will absolutely show up again.
Plus, maybe bring back Jeremy Renner, Michelle Monaghan, or flashbacks from Rebecca Ferguson, and everyone from the old movies to help Tom Cruise fight this final mission! There are ways Tom Cruise could still end this story strong.
As for next week, expect the biggest weekend at the movies all year!
Warner Brothers’ Barbie opens, as the default “event movie of the year” for women. And who can blame them?
The director (Greta Gerwig) and cast (Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling) look like they’re having a ton of fun, and the marketing campaign surrounding them has been nothing short of extraordinary.
At first I thought it was crazy to expect an opening for Barbie over $100 million, but now after ticket sales have been so strong, a $150-$200 million debut would not surprise me!
There’s simply nothing else like this comedy in the marketplace.
Also coming out is tonally the exact OPPOSITE film from Barbie, Universal and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer: an epic intense 3 hour WWII thriller, about the creation of the Atomic bomb.
The trailers have looked gorgeous yet horrifying, the cast is stacked (Cillian Murphy, Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Florence Pugh, Robert Downey Jr.), the director Chris Nolan has a passionate fanbase, and the buzz is the film itself is an amazing achievement.
Expect a $50-70 million debut.
The fear though is that both Barbie and Oppenheimer will be such big hits, both so appealing to adults and moviegoers, that Mission Impossible may be left in the dust and drop 60%+ next weekend. We’ll see!
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
I’m looking forward to writing again in this column next weekend.
Zan Hollywood Box Office - Analysis Site 
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