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The Biggest Thanksgiving Box Office Ever: How Moana 2, Wicked & Gladiator II Delivered an Historic Weekend
Turns out it was an early Christmas for Disney, Universal, and Paramount Pictures, as audiences went to the movies over Thanksgiving in record-breaking numbers.
This past weekend’s U.S. box office total reached an unprecedented $413 million, shattering the previous 2018 Thanksgiving record of $315.6 million.
It seems that singing witches, gladiators, Moana, and The Rock can all co-exist and earn strong numbers at the box office.
But while Disney’s Moana 2 roared in like a tsunami, with a jaw-dropping $225 million over the 5-day holiday weekend, the most surprising twist wasn’t its dominance (53% of the box office), but the resilience of its competition (Wicked, Gladiator 2, Red One) which refused to get washed away in Moana 2’s wake.
So what does Moana 2’s tsunami of success mean for Disney, and how did the rest of the box office withstand its impact? Let’s dive in.
DISNEY IS OPENING THE CHAMPAGNE: MOANA 2 HAS AN EXTRAORDINARY DEBUT WEEKEND
Remember 8 years ago when Moana first came out? It earned $82 million over its 5-day opening in Thanksgiving 2016, at the time a strong start for an original animated feature.
Fast forward to today, and Moana 2 is shattering expectations with $225 million over the Thanksgiving holiday, a record-breaking Wed-Sun opening.
Remarkably, Moana 2 will surpass the first film’s entire domestic run of $248 million later this week.
And if you count international numbers, Moana 2 has racked up $389 million globally in just 5 days, the highest debut for any animated film ever.
That’s pretty amazing, especially since Moana 2 earned more than the combined worldwide box office of Disney’s recent animated bombs, Strange World ($73 million in 2022) and Wish ($255 million in 2023). And this is just over one weekend!
WHY IS MOANA 2 PERFORMING SO WELL?
Audiences clearly LOVE the Moana IP – its characters, story and songs.
The original 2016 Moana garnered universal acclaim, and cemented itself as a fan favorite. And over the past five years, Moana has consistently ranked as the most-watched film ever on Disney+, keeping the brand alive in the hearts of audiences.
And with Moana 2’s success, movie theater owners are breathing a sigh of relief as families appear to have finally moved past the “stay home for streaming” habits of the past 4 years, rediscovering the magic of the big screen.
This resurgence of Disney with families was already evident with the massive success of Inside Out 2 earlier this summer, which grossed an record-breaking $1.69 billion worldwide.
Funnily enough, Moana 2 was originally designed as a Disney+ streaming series.
In hindsight, the choice to move Moana 2 from streaming to theatrical will likely go down as a masterstroke financial decision.
BUT… IS THE FILM ANY GOOD?
Moana 2 landed an “A-” grade on CinemaScore, echoing the same audience reaction as recent Disney sequels Frozen 2 and Wreck It Ralph 2.
PostTrak scores revealed an 89% “positive” rating from audiences for Moana 2, consistent with the first Moana and Inside Out 2. However, the sequel’s “definite recommend” score of 64% falls short of the first Moana’s 79%, reflecting mixed feelings about the sequel’s quality.
I saw the film myself, and while visually stunning, Moana 2 has lackluster songs (where did you go, Lin Manuel Miranda?), a forgettable villain, and an uneven narrative that truly feels like it began as a 9-episode season of a TV show.
As a film, Moana 2 is more “frustrating” than outright “bad”. But the simple excitement of returning to this world for another adventure has proven enough to draw massive crowds.
The diverse audience breakdown also highlights Moana 2’s broad appeal: 36% Hispanic and Latino, 27% Black, 18% Caucasian, and 11% Asian American.
Women made up 65% of the audience, with parents and families leading the charge.
40% of Moana 2’s audience was under 18, likely the younger portion of the audience that loved the first Moana over the past 8 years.
I’m predicting a final U.S. total of $475-$550+ million, and $1.1-$1.2 billion worldwide, which would make Moana 2 one of the highest grossing animated films of all time.
AN EMERGING TREND: DISNEY SEEMS TO LOVE THE 2010S!!
Moana 2’s overwhelming success has raised questions about Disney’s reliance on established IPs from the 2010s.
Not just with Inside Out 2 earlier this year, but Disney is releasing Zootopia 2 and Frozen 3 in Thanksgiving 2025 and 2027.
Heck, there’s even a live-action Moana slated for summer 2026!
All of this leads to the question: is all this “too soon”? Will audiences grow tired of these 2010s franchises?
Moana 2’s reception suggests otherwise, so we’ll see if audiences continue to embrace returning to old (but not too old), beloved worlds and characters.
Regardless, Disney must not overlook the importance of original storytelling.
Next summer’s Elio, an original film from Pixar, represents a key opportunity for Disney to show they can still create exciting fresh films and original hits like they did with the first Moana. Fingers crossed.
WICKED CONTINUES TO DEFY GRAVITY
Moana 2 wasn’t the only big budget magical-fantasy-musical captivating audiences this Thanksgiving.
Despite fierce competition, Universal’s Wicked delivered an outstanding second weekend, showcasing incredible staying power.
Wicked brought in $81 million over the traditional 3-day weekend, representing a mere -28% drop from its $112.5 million debut (a normal second weekend drop for a pre-Thanksgiving film is around -45%).
It helps that Wicked and Moana 2 shared different audiences. Only 13% of Wicked’s audience was under 18, compared to 40% of Moana 2‘s audience which was under 18.
Expanding to the 5-day holiday frame, the film added $118 million, bringing its domestic total to $263 million after just two weekends.
To put that in perspective, Wicked has already surpassed Grease ($190 million) to become the highest-grossing Broadway musical adaptation in U.S. box office history.
It’s almost unheard of to see such a minimal drop for a blockbuster of this scale. This is especially a huge deal since its competing with Moana 2 for screens and audiences.
Wicked has become a pop-culture event unto itself, regardless of the Broadway musical’s passionate fan base.
And with awards season on the horizon, the film is expected to maintain its momentum throughout the holiday season, and will likely extend its theatrical run into Oscars season in early March.
I’m now expecting an ending domestic box office total of $400-500+ million for Wicked. And while its international total currently stands at a “meager” $97 million, at this point who cares?
On a $160 million budget, Wicked will likely end with $650-$750 million worldwide. And this is just for Part 1!
Wicked’s performance solidifies its place as one of the year’s biggest cinematic successes, proving that even in a competitive marketplace, it’s still possible to defy gravity.
GLADIATOR II FIGHTS OFF THE COMPETITION
Paramount’s Gladiator II continued to fight its way through the crowded Thanksgiving weekend, earning $31 million over the Fri-Sun frame (down -44% from last weekend) and $44 million across the 5-day holiday period.
This brings the film’s domestic total to $111 million after ten days, with a worldwide haul of $320 million to date.
Competing against the massive draws of Moana 2 and Wicked, Gladiator II has managed to carve out its audience, especially internationally, where it has already amassed $209 million.
Projections now suggest a worldwide finish for Gladiator II in the $450–$500 million range.
Gladiator II also benefits from being the only big-budget action spectacle in theaters, until Captain America 4 in mid-February.
This lack of competition, combined with strong appeal among male moviegoers seeking large-scale, cinematic action, could help Gladiator II leg out to a final U.S. total of $150–$170 million.
While Gladiator II‘s $250 million production budget makes profitability an uphill battle, its performance remains notable for a swords-and-sandals epic: a niche genre, that historically struggles to deliver blockbuster returns.
For context, the highest-grossing entry in this genre, 2010’s Clash of the Titans, capped at $493 million worldwide.
While below the $188 million domestic total of the original Gladiator, these numbers reflect the challenges of reviving a 24-year-old franchise, in a market saturated with event films, especially from a challenging genre.
RED ONE: PERFORMING FINE FOR A CHRISTMAS MOVIE, BUT TOO EXPENSIVE TO BREAK EVEN
Amazon/MGM’s Red One earned another $13 million (-4% from last weekend), and a 5-day of another $19 million, giving the Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans’ Christmas action comedy a $76 million 3 week total.
With an A- from CinemaScore the film has decent word of mouth, and it will earn far more money than it would have as an Amazon streaming-only release, as originally planned.
Okay, that’s the good news, but let’s not forget Red One cost $253 million to make, before marketing costs.
Assuming Red One continues to leg out over December – think $110-$125 million (on par with Dwayne Johnson’s 2010s blockbusters like Rampage and Central Intelligence) – this might qualify as a face-saving performance.
Internationally the film has earned $72 million so far, and worldwide is estimated to end with only $200-$250 million worldwide.
That’s on par with the Tim Allen Santa Clause movies, albeit on triple the budget.
Lesson here Hollywood (and The Rock): don’t spend so much where you suddenly have to break records just to break even!
Overall, this holiday weekend proved that a diverse offering of event films — whether animated, musical, or action-packed—can coexist and thrive.
With something for every audience, it’s a promising sign for the future of theaters, where the allure of the movies continues to bring us together.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about? Leave a note in the comments below if there’s a film you’re interested in seeing or talking about.
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Wicked & Gladiator II Bring Magic and Action to the Box Office, but “Glicked” is no “Barben-heimer”
What is a “Barbenheimer” level event? It’s two big movies (i.e. Barbie and Oppenheimer) that can open the same day, target different audiences, and still have HUGE opening weekends (a combined $244 million) and massively successful worldwide box office ($2.4 billion).
Now over the past weekend of November 22nd, we have the somewhat contrived “Glicked” (Universal’s Wicked + Paramount’s Gladiator II). The films opened $112.5 million and $55 million respectively, for a combined $167.5 million between them both.
On the surface, “Glicked” is clearly trying to imitate the “Barbenheimer” event from last year – two incredibly different high-profile movies in terms of gender (the opening night was 72% women for Wicked, and 61% male for Gladiator II).
And thankfully instead of cannibalizing each other, there seems to be a movie for everybody with these two films.
But while “Glicked” is a pretty funny name to say out loud, and overall both films are doing well (movie theater owners rejoice!), it’s not the combined juggernaut many were hoping it would be.
Here are a few key points in comparing Wicked and Gladiator II, in order to understand why one is more successful than the other.
1. BOTH FILMS ARE TRYING TO ADAPT OR RECAPTURE THE MAGIC FROM THEIR IMMENSELY POPULAR BRANDS
Based on the 1995 novel of the same name by Gregory Maguire, Wicked is one of the most successful Broadway musicals ever, which in 2016 surpassed over $1 Billion in overall Broadway revenue with many fans seeing the musical multiple times.
It should be no surprise that Hollywood has been trying to get a movie version of Wicked off the ground since 2016.
And now after 8 years of development, 3 different directors (and the decision to release this story in 2 parts !!) the film adaptation of Wicked is finally here.
And with a huge marketing blitz by Universal Pictures, this truly feels like an event for musical lovers.
38% of the audience for Wicked was over the age of 35, perhaps driven by the women who saw Wicked on stage, who are now moms taking their own kids to see the movie.
And by casting new stars like Ariana Grande, the film was able to appeal to fans who may have never even seen the original musical.
In contrast, the first Gladiator was a Best Picture winning movie back in 2000, starring a peak-charismatic Russell Crowe, while featuring a grounded yet epic story focused on revenge.
It was a true epic summer blockbuster, and inspired a series of other big-budget sword-and-sandal action epics that followed (Troy, Kingdom Of Heaven, 300, etc).
Audiences haven’t had one of these “sword-and-sandal” movies for nearly a generation. This maybe explains why the film is pulling a younger male demographic, which is encouraging for an R-rated sequel to a 24 year old action movie. 24% of Gladiator II’s audience was under the age of 25.
This was likely helped by selling the prospect of an A-level movie star like Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian, The Last Of Us) doing sword-fights, even if he’s not even the main character.
For many younger audiences, this was something they had never seen before.
And then you have the Denzel Washington factor, who attracts both men and women. 37% of Gladiator II‘s audience said they wanted to go see the film for Denzel Washington.
In fact, sometimes the film feels like Training Day with sandals, simply because of Denzel.
Both Wicked and Gladiator II tried to recapture the magic from popular brands, with attractive new casts, and an attempt to make it an event to those who may not already be fans.
2. MOVIEGOERS ARE LOVING WICKED, BUT THINK GLADIATOR II IS ONLY OKAY?
Audiences walked out loving Wicked, granting the film not just an “A” grade from CinemaScore, but a 92% positive score on PostTrak and a 97% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is amazing for a blockbuster.
Audiences are coming out of Wicked raving about the incredible production design, musical numbers, and pitch-perfect casting of Ariana Grande as Glinda, who is even receiving “Best Supporting Actor” buzz around her performance.
Another factor that may lead to intense repeat viewership for Wicked is its ending.
Whether you agree with the choice to split the story of Wicked in 2 parts or not, it allows “Part 1” to end on the emotional high note of the story, climaxing with a blow-out rendition of the show’s signature song, “Defying Gravity”.
Once my screening of Wicked ended on Friday night, I literally saw people in my audience applauding, giving a standing ovation, and pumping their fists up in the air. The ending is that good.
From the sheer power of Wicked’s show-stopping ending, don’t be surprised if word of mouth continues to be huge for Wicked for weeks or even months.
In contrast, Gladiator II has received very mixed-positive reactions in America. It earned an “B” grade from CinemaScore, compared to the “A” grade from the first Gladiator.
The reviews for Gladiator 2 are simply “fine”, with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes (compared to 80% for the first Gladiator).
But more importantly, the audience reaction on PostTrak is only 77% positive, meaning a good portion of Gladiator II’s audience is walking away unsatisfied.
Audiences online are saying that “Gladiator Il contains all the spectacle, bloodshed, and adrenaline-pumping arena action you’d want from a Gladiator sequel, but the story lacks the original’s emotional heart and soul.“
The actor that people are walking away most impressed by isn’t the main hero, played by Paul Mescal, but instead Denzel Washington, who steals every scene with his commanding presence.
It’s worth noting that, compared to Russell Crowe, Paul Mescal is not an action-hero nor a movie star. He’s only been in smaller prestige films so far (All of Us Strangers, Aftersun), and all due respect, feels miscast here.
In all honesty, why wasn’t Pedro Pascal playing the main character?
Audiences seem to like or tolerate Gladiator 2, but they really love Wicked. Gladiator 2 has a cool cast and action but a weak story, while Wicked goes above and beyond to entertain everybody.
But while in America audiences are treating Wicked more as an event than Gladiator II, internationally, it’s a different story.
3. GLADIATOR II HAS BETTER INTERNATIONAL APPEAL
So far Gladiator II has been very successful overseas, with $166 million so far. This makes sense, as it’s the type of period-action film that transcends culture and language. You don’t need a serious background of Roman culture or history to enjoy this.
Meanwhile Wicked has stumbled overseas, with just $50 million its international opening weekend. It still could leg out from word of mouth, but this isn’t an great start.
For context as to why Wicked isn’t doing as well overseas, The Wizard of Oz from 1939 is a primarily American-language cultural touchstone, that’s mostly only big in America, Canada and England.
And the Wicked stage-show does have a somewhat big audience overseas in countries like South Korea, Japan, and the UK. But for all the other countries, the Wicked film has to essentially rely on the star power of Ariana Grande.
Thankfully Ariana is a huge pop star in Southeast Asia, so she may help this movie appeal to people outside of the fandom. Wicked has yet to open in countries like France, China, Germany and Japan.
4. BECAUSE OF ITS BUDGET AND UPCOMING “PART TWO”, WICKED WILL STILL BE A BIGGER MONEY MAKER
While Gladiator II is guaranteed to do better overseas, Wicked is likely to earn more money overall.
Given Wicked’s stronger domestic debut, as well as its stellar reviews and rave audience reactions, I’d argue Wicked is a lock for a nomination for Best Picture at the Oscars.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Wicked holds strong throughout the holiday season, plus has an Oscar Season bump between January to March.
For now I’m estimating a total of $350-400+ million domestically and $600-700 million worldwide for Wicked, which however you slice it, would be a pretty magical performance on its $150 million budget.
And this is just for Part 1! Wicked Part 2 is guaranteed to get a bump at the box office when it opens next year.
Gladiator II also has the potential to leg out over the holiday, in spite of its mixed word of mouth.
It’s currently the only blockbuster film this entire holiday season targeting older-men, aside from Kraven the Hunter on December 13.
The rush to see Gladiator II right away isn’t terribly strong, as many older moviegoers may decide to watch the sequel on its 4th, 5th or even 6th weekend.
Based on this opening and word-of-mouth, I’m predicting a total of $140-170 million domestically for Gladiator II, and between $450-550 million worldwide.
But while a finish near $450-550 million worldwide may seem good at first, Gladiator II‘s budget is reportedly $250 million, not including an estimated $100+ million for advertising. Seriously, were they expecting the film to earn a billion dollars?
Gladiator II‘s overly expensive budget is another reason why Wicked will be more profitable, since it only cost $150 million.
But the biggest legitimate threat that will come in the way of these films is: how much of a absolute monster will Moana 2 be next weekend? Well, get ready…
NEXT WEEKEND: A “MOANAPOCALYPSE”
Next weekend, Hollywood industry experts are expecting Thanksgiving to be a “Moana-pocalypse”.
Pre-sales for Moana 2 have simply been ridiculous, with many anticipating it to have a $200+ million 5-day opening in the U.S. The first Moana earned $82 million over 5-days in 2016.
An opening of this scale would set Moana 2 up to be a juggernaut of a blockbuster to watch over the rest of the holiday season, and will control all the big movie screens for the next several weeks. So watch out, Wicked and Gladiator II!
A legitimate problem that may arise from Moana 2 is the traffic jam of movie screens, since theaters can only play so many films at a time.
Moana 2 is taking nearly all the Premium Large Format Dolby and IMAX screens away from Wicked and Gladiator II, starting Tuesday night.
Even if Wicked and Gladiator potentially drop big because of Moana 2, there’s a scenario where all three of these films can coexist and thrive.
Moana 2 could easily primarily play as the big film to see over holiday for families and kids, while Wicked and Gladiator II could continue to play to older adults.
Even if Moana 2 makes most of the money, there does seem to be something for everybody with these three films, which may lead to a record-breaking Thanksgiving holiday at the box office.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
Leave a note in the comments below if there’s a film you’re interested in seeing or or a story you’re interested in talking about.
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Beetlejuice 2 Spooks Up $111 Million Debut, Resurrecting Warner Bros’ Box Office
This weekend Tim Burton and Warner Brothers’ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice opened to a spectacular $111 million.
This is currently the third best opening of the year behind Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, and the second biggest opening ever for September, right behind Warner Brothers’ own It (2017).
This is a huge rebound for Warner Brothers this year, as they just had a dismal summer.
Last year, Warner Brothers was kicking ass with Barbie in July, then The Meg 2, Wonka, and even early this year with Dune Part Two and Godzilla x Kong in March. All these films were smash hits.
But this summer, ALL of their films either underperformed or flopped, starting with Furiosa, then The Watchers, Trap, and Kevin Costner’s Horizon.
The total cost of these movies (including marketing) added up to $550+ million, while the total box office of these added up to $320 million. So yeah, this was a really bad summer for the studio.
But with the success of Beetlejuice 2, the bleeding seems to have stopped, and Warner Brothers seems to be poised to dominate the rest of the Fall season.
Joker 2 is the next wide release from Warner Brothers, and even if the reviews aren’t as strong as the first (61% vs 69% on Rotten Tomatoes), the murdering-clown-sequel is already expected to be a huge financial success (tracking to open with $100+ million).
Plus with a new Minecraft and Superman movie coming out next year, this is a sigh of relief for a studio that’s been slashing expenses to try to get out of its mountain of debt.
Okay, let’s get back to Beetlejuice 2. It’s not just a smash hit for the studio, but for director Tim Burton, and movie-stars Michael Keaton, Jenna Ortega, Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara.
Here are three big takeaways as for why Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is performing so well.
#1: THE ORIGINAL FILM IS A BELOVED HORROR-COMEDY CLASSIC THAT’S NOT OVEREXPOSED, AND FANS ARE INTERESTED IN A NEW STORY
Tim Burton’s very quirky 1988 spooky comedy did really well at the box office, energizing Burton’s and stars Michael Keaton and Winona Ryder’s careers, while also creating a creepy and strangely endearing trickster character, Beetlejuice, who became beloved by fans and kids.
And even though the film is now 36 years old (!!), it has aged well, and can still be enjoyed by fans and families (okay – despite the very non-”me too” idea that a 500 year old corpse wants to marry a 17 year old).
The film is still rewatched by a lot of families every Halloween, up there with The Nightmare Before Christmas and other spooky, holiday classics.
But more importantly, there also has not been an overindulgence of Beetlejuice media since the first film.
Within the past 36 years there was a well received but short-lived Beetlejuice cartoon series (1989-1991), that had an ALL-TIME AMAZING animated intro which you can watch here.
(Although did anyone else find it WEIRD that the first film was about a 500 year old corpse trying to marry a 17 year old, and in the cartoon they’re now FRIENDS, who now go on wacky adventures together?)
There was also a popular stage musical version of Beetlejuice that was on Broadway, and even toured in other U.S. cities and countries.
Other than the original film, the cartoon and the Broadway, that’s all Beetlejuice fans have had for nearly 40 years.
Like many classic movies (think Top Gun or Star Wars) people have continued to discover Beetlejuice at various points in the last 36 years, whether it was the original movie, the cartoon, or the Broadway musical.
These all kept Beetlejuice fresh in people’s minds, just enough to make the new movie a multi-generational nostalgic event. And fans don’t want a remake: they are interested in the same characters, and what they are doing next.
#2: THE CAST FROM BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE IS VERY OF THE MOMENT
Winona Ryder has had a career resurgence thanks to her role in the incredibly popular Stranger Things (2016-), currently the most streamed show of all time on Netflix. Catherine O’Hara meanwhile has an acclaimed performance in Schitt’s Creek (2015-2020), and Michael Keaton continues to draw attention with standout roles in Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015), The Founder (2017), and Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017).
Then they brought in Jenna Ortega, a prominent and successful Gen Z actress, who is coming off of Wednesday, Netflix’s second biggest show ever, which reimagines the classic Addams Family series with a Tim Burton twist.
Audiences are also clearly more excited to see Michael Keaton back in costume as the titular Beetlejuice than they were for his Batman return in The Flash last year.
Beetlejuice’s opening weekend box office of $110 million managed to more than double The Flash‘s $55 million.
The star-studded cast’s appeal spans generations, drawing a notable turnout from older female fans.
The demographics show a predominance of women (58%) compared to men (42%). Meanwhile 73% of the audience is over 25 years old and 27% under 25.
Note: Charts are based on audience survey data from opening night. And according to PostTrak opening night data, 41% of ticket buyers were motivated by their love for the franchise, while 38% were drawn to the cast.
The breakdown of interest also shows: 30% of attendees were fans of director Tim Burton, 27% were there for Michael Keaton, and 25% were attracted by the performances of Jenna Ortega and Winona Ryder.
The audience also included a significant 34% Latino and Hispanic moviegoers, with Caucasian audiences comprising 52%.
All of this highlights the significant power of the cast in reviving interest in this older franchise with the high percentage of older viewers reflecting the enduring appeal of Tim Burton’s work, and the cast’s nostalgic value.
Given the popularity of these films’ characters, don’t be surprised to see a horde of Beetlejuice, Lydia and Delores costumes on Halloween this year!
#3: THE FILM IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN FOR THOSE SEEING A PG-13 TENTPOLE BLOCKBUSTER
This past summer we had mostly R-rated tentpoles (Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Alien: Romulus, Deadpool & Wolverine) and/or apocalyptic dystopian films (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One).
We have not had a PG-13 all-quadrants mega-title since, at best, Twisters in mid-July.
So if you’re a family looking for entertainment that can be enjoyed by all – Beetlejuice 2 is the only game in town.
And it’s a pretty “soft” PG-13 – “scary for kids, but safe for parents”.
I got to see the movie myself over the weekend with a friend, and we really enjoyed it.
The film is definitely a little messy, has at least one subplot too many, but it’s really entertaining and surprisingly funny, with some great gags plus a semi-interesting storyline.
The best parts were the amazing set designs and practical effects, plus Michael Keaton doesn’t skip a beat as the chaotic titular character.
For fans, it’s hard not to recommend watching Beetlejuice 2 during the Halloween season.
HOW MUCH MONEY CAN BEETLEJUICE 2 END WITH?
Let’s start with some drivers of profit.
- Beetlejuice 2 is pretty cheap for a big-deal Warner Bros tentpole, “only” costing $100 million to make.
- It’s getting good audience reaction, with a B+ from CinemaScore (good for a fantasy horror comedy) and better than the first Beetlejuice which only got a B. The fact that the film jumped 43% from Friday to Saturday implies great day-to-day word of mouth from audiences.
- It had a great release date (the first weekend of September, perfect for a spooky all-quadrant horror film to start off the Fall movie season) with a $111 million opening weekend domestically, and $146 million worldwide.
- Given the size of this opening, Beetlejuice 2 has the potential to play all the way through Halloween.
Given all that, I’m personally expecting the film to end with potentially $275-325 million domestically, making it one of the biggest hits of the year in the U.S.
Overseas, where this IP is really not that popular, the film only opened to $35 million, with France and Germany still on the way. Internationally it should end with $100+ million.
So with a potential of $400-450+ million worldwide on a $100 million budget, the film is now guaranteed to earn a very healthy profit theatrically.
Given these returns, I think it would be smart (both financially and creatively) for Warner Brothers and Tim Burton and the cast to make a third film.
And hell, they can even call it “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” next time.
BECAUSE I FEEL LIKE IT, HERE ARE HOW OTHER FILMS ARE PERFORMING
Second place at the box office this weekend went to Disney/Fox’s Deadpool & Wolverine, which earned another $7 million (-55% from last weekend) for a running total of $613.8 million domestically and $1.287 billion worldwide. Pretty great for a movie that was released 7 weeks ago.
The film is (finally) showing signs of slowing down, but will most likely end now with $625-635 million in the U.S. and $1.33 billion worldwide, as one of the biggest blockbuster smash-hits of the year.
Expect to see both Deadpool and Wolverine return in the next Avengers movie, as aside from Spider-Man, they’re really the only big heroes that Marvel has left.
Third place in the box office went to Showbiz Direct’s Reagan, a squeaky-clean biopic about Ronald Reagan’s life (played by Dennis Quaid) with currently 20% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The film earned another $4.8 million in its second weekend (-37% from last weekend) for a total of $18.5 million after two weekends.
Credit for this success goes to older conservative white audiences (65% of the audience is over the age of 55, while 91% of the audience is Caucasian).
The film has a $25 million budget, so it will feasibly turn a profit once it reaches video-on-demand and streaming.
Fourth Place went to Alien: Romulus, which earned another $3.9 million in its 4th weekend (-57% from last weekend) for an ongoing total of $97 million domestically and $315 million worldwide so far.
It’ll likely finish with $100-105 million in the U.S., and $350+ million worldwide (thanks to a stunning $100+ million overperformance in China).
That makes it (unadjusted for inflation) the second biggest film of the Alien series behind Prometheus, both in the U.S. and worldwide, which is a great result on just a $80 million budget, ensuring the film will earn a profit.
Expect Disney/Fox to make another Alien film within the next few years.
Fifth Place went to It Ends With Us, the domestic-abuse drama with Blake Lively, which earned another $3.7 million (-50%) for a running total of $141.3 million domestically and $309 million worldwide so far, a PHENOMENAL return on just a $25 million budget.
Many people in the industry expected this film to open well, just based on how popular the book was, but who could have guessed that this would end with $150+ million domestically and $330-350 million worldwide?
It Ends With Us is now the biggest romance movie of the decade.
I can only hope Hollywood learns the right lessons from this, and tries to make more popular book-to-film adaptations for women, while realizing that Blake Lively is a solid movie star for the right project.
And that’s a wrap on this weekend’s box office!
Beetlejuice 2 has certainly brought the series back to life, signaling a major win for Warner Brothers and an impressive comeback for Tim Burton’s beloved franchise. With its strong debut and audience appeal, it’s clear that the film has captured the interest of the original while drawing in both old and new fans.
As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts on the film’s performance and what you’re most excited about in the coming weeks.
Don’t forget to like and subscribe for more updates and insights from the world of cinema. See you next time!
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Box Office Bliss: Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds Score Big with Top Two Hits
This weekend was a win for Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds (wife and husband respectively), who had the #1 and #2 spots at the box office with Deadpool and It Ends With Us.
Not a bad anniversary gift for the couple! (they celebrate 12 years this September)
Maybe they’ll celebrate while drinking Aviation gin, and video calling friends on Mint-Mobile. (Hint – Ryan Reynolds sold Aviation gin for $600 million and Mint-Mobile for $1.35 billion)
Here are two big lessons to take away from It Ends With Us’s success this weekend.
LESSON #1: YES, WOMEN WANT TO GO TO THE MOVIES, ESPECIALLY FOR POPULAR BOOK ADAPTATIONS THAT RESONATE WITH THEM.
Lots of books get made into movies and TV shows (over 85 in 2024 and 45 in 2023). But in the past few years, there have been very few female-led stories that make it to theaters, outside of the superhero, thriller, or animated films.
This is unfortunate, as women can become just as passionate and in love about certain books as superhero “nerds”.
It Ends With Us is one of those books. This is Colleen Hoover’s first book that has been made into a movie. Her novel has now sold 6.9 million copies, and has been on the NY Times bestseller list for 131 weeks.
And if you’re a fan – you gush about her books; there’s a Tiktok phenomena where fans like to film themselves weeping while reading her books.
84% of the audience for It Ends With Us were women. This is the largest gender skewed film since Taylor Swift last year, which also had an audience of 82% women.
This success shows if you adapt a popular book like this into a film, you’ll have female fans who will flock to go see it.
And the numbers show these fans are showing up.
The opening weekend for It Ends with Us was $50 million, and now it’s likely to end with $130-150 million domestically and $275+ million worldwide.
Not bad for just a $25 million budget.
This success is a little similar to the 2022 movie, Where the Crawdads Sing, an amazingly popular book that sold over 12 million copies and spent over 150 consecutive weeks on the NY Times bestseller list.
Despite competition from other 2022 summer blockbusters like Top Gun Maverick, Nope, Thor 4, Jurassic World 3, this $17-million-budgeted movie went on to gross $144 million globally. Women adored the book and wanted to see it on the screen.
These successes show that if a book is massively popular with women, and is adapted into an A-level movie adaptation that closely resembles the book, you will get women to show up and see it, and likely A-level box office too.
LESSON #2: BLAKE LIVELY IS A “BUTTS IN SEATS” STAR FOR REASONABLY BUDGETED FILMS.
Blake Lively makes reasonably budgeted programmers that can be profitable, without top-tier box office.
From her early days in her success in the TV show Gossip Girl, the question was whether she can draw an audience just based on her own charm?
Her first film that she led was in 2015, with The Age of Adaline, a modest success earning $43 million domestic and $65 million worldwide on a $20 million budget.
She then starred mostly by herself in the acclaimed and crowd-pleasing shark thriller The Shallows, which earned a total of $119 million worldwide on a $17 million budget.
She ended the decade with the buzzy and much-liked A Simple Favor, which earned $97 million globally on a $20 million budget.
As for “why,” well, Blake Lively is an impossibly gorgeous bombshell, who seems to have a genuinely enjoyable marriage to another online-friendly movie star (Ryan Reynolds), and she works infrequently enough to make her star vehicles into quasi-events.
She plays to her strengths, not trying to be a superhero or a fantasy-franchise protagonist, and uses her capital to make the sorts of movies Hollywood still thinks are “risky” in 2024.
Without arguing she’s the next Jodie Foster or Viola Davis, she’s an entirely compelling and engaging screen presence.
Amazon would be smart to release Blake Lively’s next film, A Simple Favor 2, to theaters before it hits Amazon Prime.
IN OTHER NEWS…. BORDERLANDS BOMBS HARD
The only other film to open this weekend was Lionsgate’s Borderlands, based on the popular video game, which had a disastrous opening weekend of just $8.8 million.
This film has a $120 million budget, and 10% on Rotten Tomatoes, making the film one of the biggest bombs of the year.
Borderlands seemed like a safe bet on paper.
It’s based on a relatively “new” popular video game (68 million units sold), with a solid genre director (Eli Roth) coming off the commercial and critical high marks of The House with a Clock in its Walls, and a cast featuring a slew of media-friendly “names” including Cate Blanchett, Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Black (voicing a robot) and, in his first live-action theatrical role since late 2019, Kevin Hart.
However, after years of delays and reshoots, along with the misguided choice to make this a PG-13 adaptation of an R-rated video game, the film arrived in theaters with a distinct whiff of being damaged goods.
Audiences gave Borderlands a “D+” grade on CinemaScore, which is the worst grade that a blockbuster big-budget action film has earned in decades.
The only films that come to mind are Alexander from 2004 (a “D+” grade), Fantastic Four from 2015 (“C-“), and The Adventures of Pluto Nash from 2002 (“C-“).
I saw the film myself with some friends this weekend (we were the only ones in the theater!) and it was worse than we thought it’d be.
It’s historically bad, like a generic empty shell of an action movie, and is genuinely one of the worst films of the year. Cate Blanchett is enjoyable, but she can’t save this.
Given this opening, I’m predicting this to end with less than $40 million worldwide, which on a $120 million budget, is horrifically bad.
Oh well, at least Cate Blanchett had fun playing an action hero.
SHIFTING OVER TO THE HOLDOVER FILMS
Even with Blake Lively entering the box office, Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool & Wolverine remained at the #1 spot at the box office again this weekend, earning another $54 million (-45%) for $494 million so far.
That’s enough to put Deadpool & Wolverine past $1 billion worldwide, as the second-highest-grossing movie of the year behind Inside Out 2 ($1.59+ billion and counting).
Consider that the first Inside Out and the first Deadpool both earned around $360 million back in 2015/2016, and now their sequels are both going to earn $650+ million this summer.
This is what happens when you make sequels years later to movies that people actually love, that deliver on the promise of said sequels.
The only other movies coming out this year that have a chance at a billion are Moana 2 (which is a sequel to a beloved Disney classic, so it’s guaranteed to be huge), and maybe Mufasa: The Lion King or Joker 2.
Universal’s Twisters continues to stabilize after its big second-weekend-drop, falling only -34% from last weekend, while earning another $15 million in its fourth weekend.
With $223 million domestically, this guarantees the film to eventually earn $275+ million total in the U.S., which is a spectacular result for a disaster movie in 2024. However, Twisters did cost $155 million to make.
Twisters is struggling globally (it will end with only $375-400 million worldwide) because they made this movie so regionally specific to Oklahoma and middle-America, that no one outside of America is interested.
If we do ever get a third film, it would need to have a lower budget and a different shooting location.
Georgia could work for the next movie, after all it’s a cheaper location, and “Dixie Alley” gets hit a lot by tornados.
Or hell, maybe move the setting to Asia and focus on their typhoons and hurricanes!
The Twisters franchise could be commercially fixable with a lot of a changes made, but it might be best to call this film a win and move on.
Universal’s Despicable Me 4 earned another $8 million this weekend, dropping just -30% in its 6th weekend, and is doing even better overseas, with $804 million this far.At this rate, a total of $900+ million worldwide could very well be in reach. Bring on Minions 3 in 2027!
Lastly there’s the second weekend of Warner Bros’ Trap, the latest thriller from M Night Shyamalan, which earned another $6.7 million, falling -57% in its second weekend.Funny enough, this is a very similar hold to M Night Shyamalan’s other recent thriller, Old (which fell -59%).
That film eventually ended with $49 million domestically and $90 million worldwide, which would be a fine result for Trap.
Trap has a $20 million budget, most of which was co-financed by Shyamalan himself.
While not a big hit, Trap might still earn a decent profit when it hits streaming/video-on-demand.
As for next weekend, Alien Romulus is expected to open with $50+ million.
This would be an encouraging debut, considering this is Disney’s first attempt to revitalize the 45-year-old franchise. The film’s budget is expected to be north of $100+ million.
Reactions from influencers and critics has been very positive thus far, with many saying it’s the scariest Alien film since the first Alien in 1979 and Aliens in 1986. (But does that really mean much?)
People are saying this new film NAILS the third act/ending, which is encouraging since the Alien franchise is known for having very underwhelming endings (Alien 3, Prometheus, etc.)
I’m a fan of Fede Álvarez’s previous films (Evil Dead, Don’t Breathe), so here’s hoping this film is a success!
And that’s the weekend box office! Why do you think about It Ends With Us is doing so well?
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Marvel’s Dynamic Duo: Deadpool & Wolverine Smash Box Office Records with $211M Opening Weekend
Take a grumpy, old (retired?), badass loner and a foul mouthed, fourth wall breaking wise cracker – coupled with promises of groundbreaking changes for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and a heavy dose of tongue in cheek humor at the absurdity of the superhero genre – and you get Deadpool & Wolverine achieving a record-breaking $211 million opening weekend.
This opening is more than just massive, it’s downright historic. This is the 6th biggest U.S. opening of all time, the biggest opening ever for the month of July, and the biggest opening ever for an R-rated movie, surpassing the previous record held by the first Deadpool movie in 2016 ($132 million), and Logan in 2017 ($88 million).
This weekend has been a wild one for Marvel, as this is happening on the heels of a killer Saturday night in San Diego Comic Con, where they announced Robert Downey Jr. is returning to play Dr. Doom (hey won’t people notice he sounds a lot like Iron Man?), and the Russo Brothers are returning as directors for Avengers: Doomsday in 2026, and Avengers: Secret Wars in 2027.
But after years of fans saying that they’re getting tired of Marvel movies, why did Deadpool & Wolverine do so well? This debut is encouraging for multiple reasons.
REASON #1: FANS (YOUNG AND OLD) STILL LOVE AND ADORE RYAN REYNOLDS AS DEADPOOL
It’s hard not to argue that overall interest in superhero films has decreased since 2019, especially with the over-saturation of the genre.
And yet, regardless of people’s continued investment in Marvel or the ongoing story, the humor Reynolds infuses into the Deadpool character is still incredibly popular, with a fanbase that spans multiple generations.
People who liked the first Deadpool movies are still coming back. 69% of Deadpool & Wolverine‘s audience was over the age 25, compared to 53% over 25 for the first Deadpool in 2016.
Deadpool 3 appeals to those who were too young to see Deadpool and Deadpool 2 in theaters, because of the R-rating. Younger audiences discovered his movies at home and cemented the bankability of Ryan Reynolds through his more kid-friendly films, like Detective Pikachu, Free Guy, The Adam Project, Red Notice and most recently If.
Deadpool has always been a personal passion for Ryan Reynolds, and he along with the writers (Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, & Zeb Wells) have a formula which clearly works for the character.
But 20th Century Fox execs were allegedly terrified of making an R-rated superhero movie, reducing him to a nearly unrecognizable cameo in X-Men Origins: Wolverine.
Not to be deterred,
As a lover of the superhero genre, Reynolds’ Deadpool movies were never single character driven. Cameos and references to X-Men and other Marvel (or even DC) characters abounded.
Which is the irony – As Disney/Fox looks to reboot or reset the X-Men storyline, it will make sense that they would rely upon Reynolds’ Deadpool – the character they didn’t believe in in the first place to be their “Marvel Jesus” – a comment Deadpool cleverly references himself to in the latest film.
REASON #2: HUGH JACKMAN’S RETURN AS WOLVERINE ALSO MADE THIS A MUST-SEE FILM FOR FANS
Whether the return of Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (7 years after his poignant farewell in Logan) and teaming him up with Deadpool (who hasn’t been seen since his second film 6 years ago) heightened interest or merely prevented a potential decline, the inclusion of Wolverine undoubtedly played a crucial role.
Wolverine’s last appearance in Logan (2017) was considered a franchise pinnacle, sparking a lot of curiosity about how (if?) he would return.
I would argue that the absence of these characters has indeed made fans’ hearts grow fonder.
With that said, an opening of $211 million is still MASSIVE for both these characters.
No Iron Man, Captain America, or Thor solo film has ever came close to a $200 million opening weekend.
This success only further cements Spider-Man, Deadpool and Wolverine as Marvel’s 3 biggest heroes that they have left.
Expect each of these 3 characters to be all over the marketing for Avengers: Doomsday or Avengers: Secret Wars.
REASON #3: THE FILM SHOWS THAT THE MULTIVERSE DOESN’T MATTER, INSTEAD SERVING AS A FAREWELL TO THE X-MEN/FOX UNIVERSE
While the trailers just teased the on-screen team-up of Deadpool and Wolverine, they cleverly hid surprise appearances from characters across the Marvel 20th Century Fox films, as a surprise love-letter with Easter Eggs from across the entire Fox/X-Men era.
However, this films’ crossover-appeal succeeds not because of the concept of the “multiverse”, but despite it.
Without giving away any spoilers, Deadpool literally tells the audience at one point that the multiverse doesn’t matter, beyond providing characters an ending that they deserve.
Deadpool & Wolverine as a film excels in its homage to the Fox/X-Men universe, much like how Spider-Man: No Way Home resonated with multiple generations of Spider-Man fans. They both drew from the weight of several decades of superhero films.
This approach is much more satisfying than just a brief “hey remember this character?” dangling-of-keys 5-second multiverse cameo (Looking at you, Doctor Strange 2 and The Flash).
The main takeaway from these multiverse crossover films is that they only work if the original actors return, the characters remain fun, and they contribute meaningfully to the story or themes.
WHAT DOES THIS SUCCESS MEAN FOR DISNEY/MARVEL’S FUTURE?
Deadpool & Wolverine is another example of Disney cashing in on the artistic and commercial achievements originally born of 20th Century Fox, relying on nostalgia for the very franchises they bought from a corporate merger (Avatar, Star Wars, Planet of the Apes, the upcoming Alien).
As successful as Deadpool & Wolverine is, I don’t think it will automatically get fans excited for every future Marvel moveie.
BUT – it does give hope that there is still a market for good, clever super hero movies.
For instance, Captain America: Brave New World will have a serious uphill battle commercially, because it deals with new actors playing iconic characters. I mean, I guess — Harrison Ford as the Red Hulk?Falcon taking up the mantle of Captain America? Sounds a bit like elevator music playing in the background.
Deadpool & Wolverine‘s success doesn’t all of a sudden mean that audiences are interested in more Marvel-related projects coming up the pipeline.
HOW MUCH MONEY WILL DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE EVENTUALLY END UP WITH?
Deadpool & Wolverine earned an “A” CinemaScore grade from audiences, and a 96% positive score off of PostTrak, indicating spectacular word of mouth from general audiences and fans.
Even if it drops hard next weekend, the marketplace in August is pretty wide-open for Deadpool to play as the last blockbuster of the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised with a domestic finish of $550+ million. Worldwide, it could hit $1.2-1.3 billion.
IN OTHER BOX OFFICE NEWS…
The overall weekend box office reached $275 million (up about 30% from last year), showing great strength for the other films playing in theaters, even with the colossal juggernaut of Deadpool & Wolverine.
You could argue it was an unforced error for Universal to release Twisters in such close proximity to Deadpool & Wolverine, since it lost so many premium screens and showtimes.
Personally, couldn’t they have at least tried to keep some 4DX screens for Twisters? Seriously, that 4DX technology felt tailor-made for the film.
For a glass-half-full perspective, while Twisters did fall 57% in its second weekend, it still earned another $35 million for a total of $155 million so far in the U.S.
By earning this against Deadpool, this is an encouraging hold and given the size of the upcoming films coming out in August, Twisters has the potential to eventually leg out to $250-275 million domestically.
But while Twisters is over-performing in the U.S., it might not even hit $100 million overseas. It’ll still turn a profit on a $155 million budget, but this is a real disappointing international performance.
An important lesson: if you make a big disaster film, you gotta destroy some famous national landmarks! Seriously, it’s the best way to get international audiences interested in a big epic disaster film.
Illumination/Universal’s Despicable Me 4 earned another $14.6 million in its 4th weekend (-40% from its previous weekend). The film is expected to finish with $350+ million domestically and $800+ million worldwide.
Despite this being the sixth film, this franchise is not showing any signs of slowing down commercially. Bring on Minions 3 in 2027!
And with these numbers, the Despicable Me franchise has also now officially passed $5 billion worldwide.
Your move, Shrek 5 and Toy Story 5!
Disney has even more to celebrate this weekend.
Inside Out 2 earned another $8.6 million in its 7th weekend (-33% from its previous weekend), officially becoming the highest-grossing animated film ever, both domestically (beating Incredibles 2‘s $608.5 million) and worldwide (passing Frozen 2’s $1.453 billion).
And it’s still not done! I’m expecting Inside Out 2 to finish with $650 million domestically, and potentially $1.7 billion worldwide.
No wonder Disney is moving forward with Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 this year and next!
Disney sequels mean big box office.
Neon’s Longlegs continued to show “long legs” at the box office, with another great hold in its third weekend (-43% from last weekend) earning another $6.8 million, another phenomenal drop for a horror title.
Longlegs has a $58 million running total so far, making it the highest grossing Neon release by a WIDE MARGIN, and is now expected to end with $75+ million domestically.
This is a spectacular blow-out performance for a serial killer drama, especially since it only cost less then $10 million to make.
It will be interesting to see director Oz Perkins’ next film (supposedly it’s an adaptation of Stephen King’s short story The Monkey), and to see what other new bizarre character Nicholas Cage will play next.
As for next weekend, it’s finally August!
I’m still expecting Deadpool & Wolverine to dominate the top spot, even if it potentially drops -60%.
But who knows: with no blockbuster competition Deadpool & Wolverine might have an even better hold, and maybe even closer to a -50% drop (which would be AMAZING).
The only other film opening next weekend is writer/director M. Night Shyamalan’s newest thriller, Trap.In the film Josh Hartnett plays Cooper, a seemingly loving father who takes his daughter to a pop concert, but who quickly realizes the concert is a “trap” for the police to catch a serial killer known as “The Butcher.” But the twist? Cooper IS “The Butcher” — or he at least appears to be.
The buzz around the film is “M. Night Shyamalan has done it again!”, and that he’s crafted another sublime intense thriller.
The potential is there for Trap to be a big break out for horror fans, with a potential $20+ million opening next weekend.
And that’s the weekend box office! Let me know what you think in the comments below, and please like and subscribe.
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Twisters Roars to $81 Million Opening Weekend: A Tornado of Cash, Crushing All Forecasts
Twisters massively over-performed this weekend, storming the box office with a phenomenal $81 million opening weekend— far surpassing the predicted $40-50 million.
The momentum for this sequel kept building bigger throughout the weekend, just like a tornado in real life.
This is officially now the highest opening ever for a disaster film, passing The Day After Tomorrow’s $69 million debut.
The central theme around the box office this weekend is that: we have a robust and thriving theatrical marketplace. Every film in the top 5 is performing exceptionally well, and there are strong reasons to be optimistic about upcoming releases this year.But first, let’s dive into the 4 key reasons why Twisters is creating a perfect storm at the box office.
REASON #1: THE FIRST TWISTER WAS A MASSIVE HIT IN 1996, SHOWING THE VALUE OF NATURAL DISASTER FILMS
The first Twister film, from 1996, featured groundbreaking special effects at the time, and was released after years where there were almost NO BIG-BUDGET DISASTER MOVIES for years before it (remember The Towering Inferno in 1974?).
Twister (1996) was so successful that it even became the second highest grossing film of the year behind Independence Day, earning $241 million in the U.S., or about $650 million adjusted for inflation in today’s dollars.
And there’s been very few tornado-centric disaster films since 1996, aside from Into The Storm in 2014.
Sometimes, you just wanna see pretty people chase tornadoes, and that’s enough.
Both films (Twister and Twisters) target a genre (natural disasters) that hasn’t been given attention in decades. So after this success, expect to see a lot more natural disaster films from Hollywood.
Look out for Michael Crichton’s blockbuster novel Eruption, which is getting adapted into a movie by Sony soon!
That could be a big hit, especially since it’ll be made by the directors of Free Solo.
REASON #2: THE FILM DELIVERS, AS A FUN CROWD-PLEASING DISASTER MOVIE SPECTACLE
Twisters earned mostly solid reviews and buzz from critics (78% on Rotten Tomatoes), and is playing very well with general audiences, who are finding it fun (It earned an “A-“ grade from CinemaScore, plus a 92% verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes).
Universal’s marketing department did a great job selling the film, attracting both coastal-elite cities and the Mid-West, such as in-theater advertisements such as the “Tornado Wind Tunnel Machines”, plus new hit country songs from the soundtrack, like “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma.”
Pair the fun marketing campaign, with Oscar-nominated Minari filmmaker Lee Isaac Chung, who was the right guy to direct this material: He’s from Arkansas, knows these characters well, and it’s not shocking to see the flyover states thundering to cinemas.
Fun fact: the No. 1 theater in the country was the Regal Warren in Moore, OK (suburb of Oklahoma City). When does that ever happen?
I saw the film myself over the weekend, and it is a ton of fun, and works as the platonic ideal of a summer blockbuster (it has plenty of visceral thrills, cool sound design, plus a well-cast trio of leads who play the tornado chasers).
Twisters‘ success shows that there is still an appetite for exciting non-trashy disaster movies, as long as they star an appealing spectacle and cast.
REASON #3: IS GLEN POWELL NOW A MOVIE STAR?
24% on Twisters’ audience said they bought a ticket because of Glen Powell: a very encouraging stat for a rising movie star.No, this doesn’t mean that Glen Powell can bring in audiences for every movie. It’s important to remember that Glen Powell provided added value because he first scored in the $215 million-grossing rom-com Anyone But You from last year.
Glen Powell is likely an A-level added value element, who can increase interest for already appealing franchise films.
This is especially true when Glen Powell plays a seemingly cocky, super-charismatic hunk, who turns out to be an okay guy.
Here’s a suggestion: if Paramount does even up making a Top Gun 3, maybe they should make Glen Powell the main character next time instead of Miles Teller, with Tom Cruise as the mentor!
I also hope that the other stars of Twisters (Daisy Edger Jones from Where The Crawdads Sing, Anthony Ramos from In The Heights & Transformers 6), can build long lasting careers off the success of this.
REASON #4: LACK OF PG-13 EVENT FILMS THIS SUMMER
Even though we’re already in the middle of July, Twisters is only just the third big PG-13 franchise tentpole of the summer.
Every other big film so far this summer has been either rated-R, or was a family/kids film.
Come what may, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was a post-apocalyptic sci-fi melodrama (albeit less violent and nihilistic than the previous films), while at the same time, A Quiet Place: Day One was still a sad apocalyptic horror movie.
This absence of crowd-pleasing PG-13 blockblusters so far this summer has created a vacuum, which Twisters has clearly filled.
And Twisters may also be the LAST crowdpleaser of the summer too, aside from Deadpool & Wolverine.
Think about it: after Deadpool & Wolverine, what’s left to open this summer?
August only has thrillers/horror films (Trap, Cuckoo, Alien: Romulus, Blink Twice), or niche video-game or book adaptations (It Ends With Us, Borderlands, The Crow).
I’m not saying these films will perform badly, but they’re all smaller movies, and very few of them will have the wide crowd pleasing appeal of a film like Twisters.
Twisters is arguably the only film left for families and general movie-goers to watch and enjoy for the rest of summer.
And considering the somewhat weak competition in August, I’m predicting a U.S. total of $240-275+ million for Twisters, for a total of $390-425+ million worldwide.
But wait, why am I only predicting under $150 million internationally for Twisters? Well….
AND YET… WHY IS TWISTERS BOMBING OVERSEAS?
The only reason to be pessimistic about Twisters (aside from Deadpool & Wolverine which will take away its IMAX/Dolby screens next weekend) is its admittedly dismal international box office.
After two weekends overseas, Twisters has only earned $44 million, which is….. not good. It’s likely going to earn less international box office than the first Twister back in 1996. So why aren’t overseas audiences interested?
I think it’s proof that you’re not gonna sell tickets in Asia and Europe with Great Plains, rodeos, tornados and country music.
Comparatively, a international blockbuster disaster-movie like 2012 had multiple set pieces in different parts of the world, plus its third act was set in China.
Twisters was always going to be a tough sell internationally.
Maybe next time they should show the devastation of major U.S. landmarks, if they want to interest overseas audiences.
With a $155 million budget (and a potential total of $390-420+ million worldwide) Twisters will still definitely turn a profit in the long run, even if it’s underwhelming in places like Asia and Europe.
Universal has plenty to pump its chest about this weekend, as it will also own second place with Illumination’s Despicable Me 4, which earned $24 million (-44%) in its third weekend.
The film is mainly succeeding because of positive word-of-mouth from families, and currently stands at $259.5 million domestically and $575 million worldwide.
Despicable Me 4 is expected to end with about $350+ million domestically and $800+ million worldwide, on par with the previous films in the franchise.
Despite this being the sixth film, this franchise is not showing any signs of slowing down commercially. Bring on Minions 3 in 2027!
Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 earned $13 million in its sixth weekend (-36% from last weekend) and a running total of $596 million domestically. With these spectacular legs, I’m expecting an ending total of $650+ domestically.
Overseas Inside Out 2 is performing even better ($847 million internationally so far), and is now expected to potentially top $1 BILLION alone in international box office.
If it tops $1.66+ billion worldwide, it would then pass The Lion King (2019) remake as the highest grossing animated film ever.
No wonder Disney is moving forward with Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 this year and next!
Disney sequels mean big box office.
Pixar can only hope that their next two ORIGINAL films (Elio in 2025 and another in 2026) will earn at least a THIRD as much as Inside Out 2 will earn at the worldwide box office.
Neon’s Longlegs had a second weekend of another $12 million (-47% from its opening weekend), a phenomenal drop for a horror title, especially considering the mixed word-of-mouth (it earned a “C+” grade from CinemaScore, a “meh” reaction for a horror film).
Credit this drop to the white-hot buzz, and conversation around Nicholas Cages terrifying performance. Longlegs has a $46 million running total so far, already the highest grossing Neon release EVER.With these “long-legs” at the box office, the film is expected to now end between $60-70 million. This is a spectacular blow-out performance for a serial killer drama, especially since it only cost less then $5 million to make.
Fifth place belongs to Paramount’s A Quiet Place: Day One, which earned another $6.3 million in its fourth weekend (-44% from last weekend) for a running total of $128 million.
A Quiet Place: Day One is expected to finish with about $145-150 million in the U.S. and $270-280 million worldwide. The film only cost $68 million too, so this is a smashing success for everyone involved.
A Quiet Place: Day One’s performance is on par with A Quiet Place: Part II (also $160 million domestically and $290 worldwide), which makes this even more impressive considering this is a prequel, with none of the original cast.
My vote for the next film would be: show us how this apocalypse went down in Europe!
Looking to next weekend, while Twisters’ success serves as a great palette cleanser, Deadpool & Wolverine is set to conquer the world next weekend.
Despite the recent Marvel superhero fatigue, the hype is truly real with this, as Marvel fans do really want to see how Deadpool, as well as the X-Men, will be introduced into the universe.
We’ll see how front-loaded Deadpool & Wolverine plays with fans. The film is Rated-R, like the previous two Deadpool films, and there’s also very few action-comedy films playing in theaters right now.
Deadpool & Wolverine is expected to open with $175+ million, but personally I’m predicting an opening over $200+ million. Hell, given how awesome ticket pre-sales have been, maybe even $225+ million!
With Twisters though, even if it only drops 55-60% due to Deadpool, I think the odds are strong for both films to have great runs throughout all of August.
And that’s the weekend box office! I’m looking forward to writing again in this column next weekend when Deadpool & Wolverine opens, and as the rest of the August films begin to open.
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Inside Out 2 Shatters Records with $154 Million Opening, Reclaiming Disney and Pixar’s Box Office Dominance
Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 shattered expectations with a colossal $154 million opening in the U.S. and a jaw-dropping $300 million globally.
This opening number is so massive, that it’s just silly. Not only is this almost DOUBLE what the industry was tracking pre-release (this was only estimated to open with $85 million), but it’s also almost DOUBLE Dune 2’s opening weekend ($82 million), the previous highest opening of the year.
The strength of this sequel shows the unwavering appeal of cherished Pixar franchises, or at least their Part-2 entries (ala Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo 2 and Incredibles 2).
Here’s a breakdown of why Inside Out 2 triumphed so spectacularly at the box office.
REASON #1: A PROVEN FRANCHISE, WITH MULTI GENERATIONAL APPEAL
Inside Out 2 taps into a beloved Pixar legacy that still resonates across generations. Younger moviegoers clearly viewed Inside Out, released in June of 2015, as a Disney-specific generational touchtone.
It’s pretty similar to how the earlier generation viewed Finding Nemo in 2003, or how the generation before that viewed The Lion King or Toy Story in 1994/1995.
Each of these classic animated films produced generations upon generations of fans who were genuinely interested in seeing a sequel or continuation of the story.
And that’s reflected in how OLDER Inside Out 2’s audience is now, with Inside Out 2’s audience now consisting of 46% families, compared to 71% for the first film.
This opening also shows: Audiences say time and time again they want original films, yet they’re resistant to try anything new.
In just a single weekend, Inside Out 2 passed the ENTIRE domestic gross of Pixar’s own Elemental, as well as the WORLDWIDE total of Disney’s Wish, both from last year.
Were they a compelling story? Did they seem generic? Maybe they just didn’t offer enough to go to the theaters vs. the lure of a tried and true concept.
Hopefully this doesn’t teach the wrong lessons to Bob Iger, Pete Doctor and the other Disney Animation executives, in producing the types of unnecessary franchise sequels which audiences likely won’t want to see. (Looking at you, Finding Nemo 3 [will they swim to the Atlantic now?] and Toy Story 5….[does Woody get Bo pregnant?])
REASON #2: UNTAPPED AUDIENCE DEMAND (Women and Gen Z and BIPOC)
Perhaps some part of the success of Inside Out 2 is because there’s nothing out there for certain audience segments (e.g. Women, Gen Z and BIPOC).
For instance, 63% of the audience for Inside Out 2 were women (vs. 56% for the last movie), which speaks to the significant lack of options for female moviegoers, at least since Barbie last July (save for smaller successes like Anyone But You, Mean Girls and Challengers).
Also, 65% of Inside Out 2‘s audience is under the age of 25.
This is another case, like Minions: The Rise of Gru and Five Nights At Freddy’s, of Gen Z and younger moviegoers responding to getting a franchise for them, instead of getting their parents/older generations’ hand-me-downs. I’m looking at you Indiana Jones 5 and The Flash in summer 2023.
Furthermore, Inside Out 2’s broad multicultural appeal (Latino and Hispanic audiences represented 36% of moviegoers (19% of the population), followed by 33% Caucasian, 14% Black, 11% Asian, and 6% Native American/ other) underscores the film’s universal themes.
It will be interesting to see if Disney/Pixar can repeat this broad demographic appeal for their upcoming films.
HOW MUCH MONEY COULD INSIDE OUT 2 EVENTUALLY END WITH?
This opening is a phenomenal start, and with a 100-day theatrical window, Inside Out 2 should have legs throughout the rest of the summer.
With positive reviews (92% on Rotten Tomatoes) and strong word of mouth (including an A from CinemaScore), I would expect Inside Out 2 (which has a $200 million budget) to leg out to $650-700 million in the U.S., and likely $1.5+ billion worldwide. Fantastic!
Depending on how well Deadpool does, this might make Inside Out 2 the biggest movie of the year.
The only other family-friendly competition this summer is Despicable Me 4, which is expected to open two-and-a-half weeks from now with $100+ million over its 5-day weekend.
Despicable Me 4 shouldn’t be a problem, as historically Pixar and Illumination films have been able to coexist for years now (Inside Out and Minions in summer 2015, Finding Dory and The Secret Life Of Pets in Summer 2016, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4 in 2019).
After all, Pixar movies tend to play to older adults, while Illumination films play more to parents with much younger kids.
WHAT THIS SUCCESS MEANS FOR DISNEY ANIMATION’S FUTURE ??!??
Inside Out 2‘s performance challenges the prevailing narrative that Disney+ has cannibalized theater attendance for Pixar films, suggesting instead that compelling content can still draw massive crowds.
This weekend’s success story also highlights the continuing trend where audiences prefer franchise films over new IPs, a factor studios will have to consider in future content development.
We’ll have to see how Pixar’s next two films, (see below) which are original, do before their next sequel (Toy Story 5) comes out. The world clearly wanted Inside Out 2, but do they REALLY want Toy Story 5?
Pixar’s next original film, Elio, is currently going head to head with the How to Train Your Dragon live action remake next June. And Pixar will have ANOTHER original film set for March 2026, the same time as WB’s animated Cat in the Hat film.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Pixar’s next 2 original films struggle comparatively out of the gate at the box office.
However, I would chalk in Disney’s next animated film Moana 2, which comes out this Thanksgiving, as another potentially huge blockbuster. The first Moana from 2016 has consistently earned spectacular streaming numbers since its release on Disney+, so I’m expecting this sequel to be a big hit.
(Again – Audience’s love comforting IP – until they don’t).
The only reason I would even slightly be bearish is the fact that Moana 2 began its life as a 3 episode Disney+ show, so the question remains how this new story works as a film. But if it still plays well with audiences, that’s all irrelevant.
At the end of the day, Disney might end up with 4 of the biggest movies of the year with Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, Moana 2 and Mufasa: The Lion King. Wow!!
Makes me wish I bought Disney stock a year ago.
HOW OTHER MOVIES ARE PERFORMING AT THE BOX OFFICE: BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE HOLDS STRONG
In other good news, the overall weekend box office will tower over the same weekend in 2023 and 2019, with a cumulative total of $217 million over Fathers Day weekend, the first $200+ million weekend since Barbenheimer happened last July.
Yes, 71% of the weekend box office this weekend is thanks to Inside Out 2, but Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die also performed great and is showing some very strong legs.
Bad Boys 4 earned another $33.8 million over Fathers Day weekend (-40% from last weekend), a very good drop for an R-rated action movie. For context, Bad Boys 3 fell -46% in its second weekend.
It helps that Bad Boys 4 is the only action-comedy playing in theaters right now, until Twisters and Deadpool & Wolverine in late July.
With this strong pace ($113 million after just 10 days) and great word of mouth, the film is now on track to hit $200+ million domestically and $375-400+ million worldwide, a huge hit on a $100 million budget.
An obvious lesson here: studios should start calling Will Smith again for new movies!
20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes earned $5.53 million on its sixth weekend. That’s a +2% increase from last weekend, which is incredibly rare thing to see!
I would credit the weekend-to-weekend increase to the fact that Sunday was Fathers Day, and Disney paired Inside Out 2 and Apes together for drive-in theaters.
With a domestic total so far of $158 million, the film is expected to finish with $170-175 million in the U.S. and $390-400 million worldwide, a decent return for a blockbuster that cost $165 million.
Will audiences return for the next Planet Of The Apes?
Perhaps next time: have a more compelling movie-star in the cast? A story hook that intrigues even non-Ape fans?
Sony’s The Garfield Movie will earn $4.7 million (-53%) on its fourth weekend for a $75 million domestic total, just over/under the $75.3 million domestic total of Bill Murray’s Garfield movie in 2004.
It’s expected to end worldwide with $240-250 million, which makes this a solid hit on a $60 million budget.
Paramount’s IF passed $100 million domestically over the weekend, a significant achievement for an entirely original live-action/animated family-targeted fantasy. The Ryan Reynolds-starring family dramedy earned $3.6 million in its fifth weekend (-54%), and is expected to end with $200-220 million worldwide.
That sadly still won’t be enough for IF to break even theatrically (IF’s budget was $110 million), despite good word of mouth and legs.
This goes to show how hard it is for original non-IP films to sell tickets nowadays. Remember filmmakers, you have to budget your films accordingly!
Next weekend comes the Focus Features’ release of The Bikeriders, a well-reviewed crime drama (82% on Rotten Tomatoes) starring Austin Butler and Tom Hardy, as members of a motorcycle club in 1960s Illinois. The film cost $40 million.
The film is only expected to open with around $10 million next weekend, but like all Focus Features films, a majority of their revenue comes from PVOD and digital sales. So even if The Bikeriders underperforms, it may still turn a profit after it hits digital.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about? I’m looking forward to writing again in this column soon.
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Bad Boys Ride or Die Blazes Past Expectations with $57 Million Opening Weekend, + Five reasons to be optimistic this summer
I was tempted to give this story the headline, “Will Smith Slaps The Box Office Into Overdrive”, but it seemed like such low-hanging fruit.
The last time I wrote in this blog it was last summer, as Barbenheimer was saving the summer box office, which brought the 2023 box office to unprecedented heights post-COVID.
Now in 2024, how are the summer movies shaping up? Well…..
If you believe industry pundits, then the box office and theatrical industry are DYING right now.But actually, the industry is in a much, much better state than you may think. Here are 5 reasons to have optimism.
REASON #1: NO, THE SKY IS NOT FALLING
Ever since The Fall Guy underperformed in early May, there has been a narrative out there that movie theaters and theatrical moviegoing are dying, which has been compounded by hundreds of pundits in the entertainment media and trades, who keep repeating the same mantra: because the big summer releases were flopping, “the sky is falling”.
COVID and streaming have unequivocally changed moviegoing habits, for sure.But last year’s strikes delayed movies that were expected to be “tentpole” events for summer 2024 (Mission: Impossible 8, Captain America: Brave New World, and ESPECIALLY Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse) into 2025. This has lead the industry to have higher expectations for the movies being released this summer.
The strikes also greatly increased the budget for many of these movies too, making it harder to earn a profit. See below for what I mean (items in red highlight my point).
Film Title Pre-Release Opening Weekend Expectations
ACTUAL Opening WeekendAverage Budget for Films in this genre or franchise
ACTUAL Film Budget
The Fall Guy
$35-40 million
$27 million$70-90 million
(original movie-star-driven action comedy)
$150 million
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
$50 million
$58 million$150-170 million
(Apes Franchise)
$165 million
If$40 million $33 million $60-80 million
(original family CGI/live-action hybrid)$110 million Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga $50 million $32 million $150 million
(Mad Max franchise)$168 million Garfield $30 million $31 million $60-100 million
(animated family film based on IP)$60 million Bad Boys Ride or Die $30 million $57 million $90-130 million
(Bad Boys franchise)$100 million BIG FILMS THAT OPENED SO FAR THIS SUMMER Looking at this table, 3 out of the 6 big films released this summer (The Fall Guy, If, Furiosa) have failed to meet their Pre-Release Expectations for Opening Weekend, and COST WAY TOO MUCH to possibly make a profit.
However, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Garfield, and now Bad Boys Ride or Die prove that there is still demand and life in these respective franchises, as long as they set their expectations and budget right.
REASON #2: MANAGE EXPECTATIONS AND BUDGET
The latest installment in the Bad Boys franchise Bad Boys Ride or Die has defied expectations, by opening with a whopping $57 million.
One smart thing Sony Pictures did was to set low expectations, only predicting a TINY $30 million opening. But then on opening day it earned a $22 million, Day 2 $20 million, and Day 3 $15 million.
Those same industry pundits who a few weeks ago were doom and gloom are now gushing – “surprise hit!!”, and “Never saw this coming”.
But if Sony had followed the expectations model of Furiosa and Planet of the Apes (both expected to open with $50 million), pundits might have just yawned. There’s nothing like beating a low target soundly to create a sense of success.
REASON #3: MARKET TO YOUR CORE AUDIENCE
While the last Bad Boys film’s audience was mostly evenly split racially (42% African American, 30% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic), this new film’s audience leaned MUCH more heavy towards people of color (44% African American, 26% Hispanic, and ONLY 18% Caucasian).
This makes sense, as Will Smith and Martin Lawrence prioritized a bigger share of the film’s marketing budget to BIPOC media outlets, than they did for any other other Bad Boys film. They knew that if they could get their BASE fanbase fired up, the rest would come along for the ride… and boom.
Sony’s decision to market the film as an event for core demographics absolutely payed off.
REASON #4: STAR POWER AND CHEMISTRY
Like the previous films, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence have delivered the same lively, energetic, and entertaining performances that fans have come to want and expect.
And the reaction to Bad Boys 4 has thus far been very positive.
It earned an A- CinemaScore grade from audiences (a bit lower than the previous 3 films’ A grades), so while it may arguably be the “worst” film in the series, this success proves that there is still life left in this franchise.
The success of this film also signifies a triumphant return for Will Smith, who has been absent from leading blockbuster roles for the past 5 years.
Now that he is officially “back”, it wouldn’t be surprising if a studio gives him a big blockbuster leading role again, like potentially I Am Legend 2 or Men In Black 4. He’s got the chops, he’s still beloved, and he can obviously still sell tickets.
This opening and reception sets the stage for Bad Boys 4 to end with 160M+ in the U.S. (bigger than the last Fast and Furious movie, and on par with the last Mission: Impossible, as far as long running action franchises go domestically).
Worldwide, it will likely end with $300 million+. On a $100 million budget, that’s a huge success.
Expect Bad Boys V: Five Times the Trouble in a few years.
REASON #5: CHEAP ANIMATED FAMILY MOVIES STILL DO WELL
Sony’s family-friendly Garfield reboot continues to perform steadily, earning $10.1 million in its third weekend (-29% from last weekend) for a total of $68.9 million in the U.S., and a likely final total of $230+ million worldwide.
While not a blowout hit, especially with Inside Out 2 coming out next weekend, the film has earned a respectable amount of money from families, given its expectations and low $60 million budget.
And because I feel like it, here’s an side on the other films:
Both If (-24% for a $93 million 24-day total) and The Fall Guy (-35% for a $85 million 38-day total) are holding nicely with solid drops due to great word of mouth.
Yet, due to underwhelming overall box office (If and The Fall Guy will likely end with only $220-240 million and $175-200 million worldwide respectively), and extremely high budgets as I mentioned earlier, neither of them will earn a profit theatrically. It’s tragic, but not surprising. Remember, keep your budgets in check!
20th Century Studios / Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes remains the highest grossing movie of this summer, with a fifth weekend of $5.75 million (-36% from last weekend) and a domestic U.S. total of $151 million. The film has a $165 million budget, and will likely finish worldwide with around $375-$390 million, a modest success for a blockbuster nowadays.Ultimately, Kingdom feels like a movie that will do very well on streaming/VOD, and could be discovered by much more people after it’s theatrical run. I’d expect the next film – as long as it comes out within 2-4 years of this film – to have an increase in the box office.
I think for the next film, they should get a more recognizable actor/actress to play one of the main human characters. Kingdom has NO STARS in the film, which helped the budget, but likely also hurt it’s promotions/ marketing and general awareness.
Warner Brothers’ Furiosa continues to slide into a box office pit of despair, earning just $4.1 million in its 3rd weekend (-61% from last weekend) for a total of $58 million in the U.S. and $144 million worldwide. It has taken took 3 weeks for Furiosa to earn what Bad Boys will earn in 3 days. Yikes!
I’m expecting a $180-200 million worldwide finish, which on a $168 million budget, is a horrible flop. Too bad, BUT I LOVED IT ANYWAY!
I have 2 takeaways from Furiosa’s dreadful box office performance: #1 The lightning-in-a-bottle reception of Fury Road was NOT replicable without Tom Hardy or Charlize Theron.
#2: Telling the origin story of an iconic fan-favorite character (paired with a younger/less popular actor) is box office poison, no matter how good it ends up being (see also Solo: A Star Wars Story or Pixar’s Lightyear).
If Furiosa does end up being the last film in the Mad Max franchise, it would be tragic, but understandable.
At least director George Miller can stand tall (at the age of 80 !!) that he made this franchise the way he wanted, earning high praise from critics and audiences each time, even with low box office returns.
WHY NEXT WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THEATERS ARE ALIVE
Next weekend comes the release of the Inside Out 2, which will be a huge test on the viability of Pixar’s brand, over the past 4 years of their *arguably* best films (like Soul or Luca) getting dumped for free on Disney+.
The industry is expecting an $80-90 million opening weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it potentially opens over $100+ million. Ticket pre-sales have been excellent so far, and 9 years ago the first Inside Out opened with $90 million. We’ll see!
Next weekend should also have a great drop for Bad Boys 4, with Fathers Day next Sunday. It’s crazy to think that a Bad Boys movie can now qualify as Dad-friendly-entertainment, but don’t be surprised: this is an action movie starring two men pushing 60.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
I’m looking forward to writing again in this column next weekend.
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Everybody Wins: Toys, Turtles, Sharks, and Bombs create a Box Office Bonanza this weekend, why?
Four turtles, a shark, some dolls, and an atomic bomb walk into a theater…. box office success ensues.
While Barbie is still queen bee at the box office for the third weekend in a row, there’s a fierce battle for second place this weekend, which is great to see for the industry. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, The Meg 2, and Oppenheimer are all neck and neck this weekend with $28-30 million each, but at this point rank is almost irrelevant. They ALL exceeded expectations.
After this weekend, the 2023 domestic box office is soaring past $6 billion; +22% over the same January-August timeframe a year ago.
Perhaps it’s because the slate of movies that have come out this summer are bigger, and more compelling than what came out a year ago.
After all compared to 2022, Oppenheimer > Nope. Elemental > Lightyear. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles > DC’s League of Super-Pets. And Barbie > Where The Crawdads Sing. Simply put, the July/August movies this year are more popular with audiences.
Barbie is still at #1, earning another $53 million for a total of $460 domestically, passing Wonder Woman as the highest grossing film EVER directed or written by a woman.
Credit again to the film’s clever hook, stellar marketing, perfect cast, and direction from Greta Gerwig.
Worldwide, it’s already at $1.03 billion after 3 weeks! Yes, it’s earned a “Barbillion” worldwide. Wow.
The Meg 2: The Trench exceeded expectations for its studio Warner Bros., with a $30 million opening (the industry was expecting $20 million).
However, the audience and critic scores in America are quite terrible (a “B-“ cinemascore compared to the first Meg’s “B+”), indicating that the sequel is not at all thrilling. Apparently, you also don’t even see the titular Megaladon shark until nearly an hour into the film.
But in the end, there’s always an appetite for stupid fun shark movies or “creature features”, especially in the dog-days of August when audiences are hungry for a fluffy action adventure film.
The Meg 2 also did open strong overseas ($145 million worldwide, including a $53 million opening in China, the home of the films costar Wu Jing).
So the film may still end with near $300 million worldwide. That may be just enough to recoup the films $130 million budget.
Interesting to note, the studio is reporting The Meg 2’s opening was largely fueled by interest from TV spots and in-theater trailers, and not promotions from the cast (like Jason Statham) due to the SAG-AFTRA strike.
We’ll see if future films without cast promotion can replicate this success during the ongoing Actors and Writers strike.
Oppenheimer earned another $29.12 million in its third weekend, for a total of $228.5 million in the U.S.
It’s on track to eventually pass Inception ($291 million in the U.S.), for $300+ million in the U.S. and $750-$850 million worldwide. That would make it the highest grossing Christopher Nolan film ever, besides The Dark Knight. Spectacular! And on just a $100 million budget.
Personally, I’m still somewhat shocked that a film with such a grim tone, an apocalyptic subject matter, and a dense 3 hour runtime is playing like one of the biggest and best blockbusters of the year.
Credit again to Director Christopher Nolan, for making this story about “the most important man who ever lived” as accessible and entertaining as it is. You’ll love to see it.
Lastly this weekend, despite being the 7th iteration in the Turtles franchise, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem written by and starring Seth Rogen, opened very well, with $28 million over the 3-day weekend and $43 million over the 5 day weekend.
But the most encouraging stats comes from the audience scores: moviegoers are loving this film, more than any other previous in the franchise.
Critics gave this a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, comparing the films’ tremendous animation to the SpiderVerse films.
Add that with an “A” grade from Cinemascore, and a Postmark Audience score of 88% “positive” and 70% “definitely recommend” (kids under 12 gave it a 94% “positive” score), audiences are loving the fresh new take on this franchise.
From the look of this Turtles film, with its grungy New York art style, 90’s hiphop soundtrack, charming voice acting and characters, this is the best these Turtles movies have ever been.
Given the amazing word of mouth, there’s enough ooze to keep this family film playing throughout the month of August and September.
Worldwide? I would expect $300 million-$350 million. And the best part: the films’ budget is only $70 million! Cowabunga!
In the end, with movies about Toys, Turtles, Sharks, and Bombs, the top 4 films all did exceedingly well at the box office this weekend. Why?
Because they all offered something different than anything else in the marketplace, with concepts, subject matter, and characters you couldn’t get anywhere else. Maybe there is a way to re-engage that portion of the public who swore off theaters for the comfort of their couch.
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BOMBS AND DOLLS: What is getting Americans off their couches and into movie theaters for Barbenheimer?
The theater event being hailed as Barbenheimer is going to be analyzed for years. Savor and remember this moment.
What just started as a petty rivalry between two movies (in 2020 after Christopher Nolan quit Warner Brothers and moved to Universal, WB reacted by placing their film Barbie on the SAME date as Nolan’s next film Oppenheimer), has now become a mutually beneficial phenomenon.
Opening the weekend of July 21st, Barbie opened to $162 million and Oppenheimer opened to $82.4 million. There’s a movie for everybody with these two films.
Posttrak is reporting 68% of Barbie’s audience was female, while 65% of Oppenheimer’s audience was male. You can imagine a couple going to the theater, kissing each other goodbye, walking into different theaters, and both coming out with a smile.
Many theatergoers aren’t making a choice, they’re seeing both. When I and a friend saw both films last Friday, we were in a sea of others dressed their best, either in pink, suits, or science related outfits at the AMC.
It was like gathering to witness a rare cosmic event.
This is particularly hopeful, as it shows that even post COVID, there can be event movies that get everyone talking and excited enough to make the visit to the multiplex. The question is – why are they getting off their couches? I‘ve got 2 key thoughts:
1. Unique Subject Matter, with Clever Execution
The buzz around both movies shows audiences are hungry for new stories that aren’t just 5th or 7th entries in a franchise (looking at you, Indiana Jones, Mission Impossible, Transformers), or formulaic stories (e.g. every superhero story right now).
Sure Barbie is an existing IP, but unlike The Super Mario Bros Movie – which follows the plot of a beloved game – there’s a blank canvas for creating a story.
Interest ended up being so high for Barbie, that it beat The Super Mario Bros Movie for the BIGGEST opening weekend of the year, $162 million to $146 million respectfully.
Just like with The Lego Movie, many audience goers want to see Barbie out of both nostalgia and curiosity. The marketing reflected the playfulness, opening the film up as something both kids and adults could proudly enjoy.
With Barbie, women are showing up in droves, but (plot twist notwithstanding) it’s okay to be a guy in the audience, too.
The story is layered, both entertaining and satirical, poking fun at the Barbie mythos in subversive and clever ways that empower women and offer a nice viewpoint on modern day feminism.
Similarly, the story and subject matter are massive key selling points for Oppenheimer.
The interesting thing about Oppenheimer is that everyone knows how it ends (spoiler alert – we make an atomic bomb), but The Manhattan Project is one of those mysterious events that EVERYONE knows about superficially, but not the details.
Even at 3 hours and a dour tone, with mostly talking and little action, the storytelling is thrilling, riveting, and intense in a very non-History-Channel way.
By the end of the movie, the audience has a deeper appreciation not just for J. Robert Oppenheimer, but for all the people who came together to create this dreadful weapon.
Barbie takes a well known toy, and tells a smart engaging story that feels fresh. Oppenheimer takes a well known event, and gives you a peek behind the curtain of “the most important man who ever lived, who genuinely created the power to destroy the world”.
Both Barbie and Oppenheimer are stories that people don’t know and find intriguing – and somehow feel important enough to find out about ASAP.
2. Huge fanbase for the Director/Cast
Oppenheimer’s massive opening shows Director Christopher Nolan is still in his prime. He’s the modern equivalent of Spielberg and Scorsese, a director whose involvement on a project guarantees some semblance of quality and commercial success.
His last film Tenet managed to gross over $360m worldwide in 2020 during the peak of the pandemic, almost entirely off Nolan’s name alone.
And now with a remarkable $82.4 million debut, Oppenheimer is a career best for Nolan opening a non-Batman movie.
With Barbie, they casted the film perfectly. The likability of both Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling in the main roles is a big reason why the anticipation is so high.
Greta Gerwig is also likely a draw as writer/director of Barbie. For a significant portion of the audience, she is an “it” director after making both Lady Bird and Little Women, she’s a trusted voice in directing female-driven movies.
Both Barbie and Oppenheimer will likely have wonderful staying power for the rest of the summer. Both films are completely satisfying for audiences (“A” Cinemascores for both).
Yet each has fast paced stories, where a lot of details could be missed during the first watch, that I suspect repeat viewing for both will be big.
For Barbie, imagine $500 million just in the U.S. plus more than $1 billion worldwide. For Oppenheimer, imagine $700-$800 million worldwide, one of the biggest biopics ever made.
And with the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes going on, both Barbie and Oppenheimer may also be the last big budget hit films for the rest of the summer, if not the year.
I really hope the insane success of Oppenheimer thus far emboldens Paramount to go all out on pushing and marketing Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon this fall – another 3 hour epic, with major stars, a marquee director, but most of all an important subject matter.
My hope from the massive successes of Barbie and Oppenheimer is that conventional wisdom of what a blockbuster can also be is rethought. Maybe there is a way to re-engage that portion of the public who swore off theaters for the comfort of their couch.
Yes – core movie-going audiences will still see franchise and formulaic movies – but clever, thoughtful stories done well can be BIG blockbusters too, and can be worth taking a chance on.
Zan Hollywood Box Office – Analysis Site
Films, Hollywood Analysis, and the Box Office! A film blog trying to be seen…
Zan Hollywood Box Office - Analysis Site 