Zan Hollywood Box Office – Analysis Site

DC’s League of Super Pets, the Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart animated action comedy, opened this weekend. The film essentially pitched itself as “The Secret Life of Pets, but co-starring the Justice League,” and earned surprisingly okay reviews (72% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and “fine” reactions from audiences (an A- from CinemaScore). 

The $23 million opening was lower than expected, probably because the film plays like a tired version of The Lego Batman, and The Secret Life of Pets.  

Maybe the filmmakers thought having big comedy stars, like The Rock and Kevin Hart, combined with superheroes would add energy, but it’s not enough to create a really exciting few hours.

It’s kind of funny that Dwayne Johnson was originally supposed to open this weekend with another Warner Bros./DC movie, Black Adam. (Talk about being all places at once). 

But that project has been delayed until October, due to the backlog of special effects at post-production VFX warehouses.  Probably a good thing, as the positive buzz that began at Comic-Con last week will hopefully snowball over the next few months, so that more fans will be excited for Black Adam by its release in the fall.

As for Super Pets, here’s a good comparison. The Bad Guys was another animated movie released in April 2022.  Both movies had little competition when it came to family films, and both cost $80-90 million to make.  Super Pets’ $23 million opening is equal to what The Bad Guys ran out the gate with.

The Bad Guys had slightly better word of mouth (an A CinemaScore), but still flew high to eventually earn $96.6 million in the U.S. and $250+ million worldwide.  Based on that, one would hope Super Pets can pull in similar numbers, which would be pretty profitable – despite being a more tired and predictable film.

In other news Nope fell hard, dropping a steep 58.2% in its second weekend.

While Jordan Peele’s last film, Us, dropped 53% in it’s second weekend (a little better but in a similar ballpark), Us had a bigger opening ($71 million vs. $44 for Nope) and cost less (Us cost $20 million vs. Nope cost $69 million).

This leads to the question – Why is Nope struggling to find an audience?  

One theory I have is: the Jordan Peele brand is highly intertwined with horror. From Candyman, Get Out, to Us. Although Nope has a few scary moments, it’s a slower film, with a sci-fi bent, and complex themes that might leave an audience scratching their heads to get the point. 

Most people like to know what they’re getting into, before trekking to the theater and paying their $15.  

Maybe in Peele’s quest to be original and thought provoking, he’s made a film that leaves the audience not really sure they got the point.

Peele has had a string of successes that have raised his profile as a director.  Yet if Nope continues to disappoint in the upcoming weeks, it will be interesting to see if he gets as open a check book for his next film.

Thor 4 recovered somewhat in its fourth weekend, only falling 41.5% earning $13.17 million. The Taika Waititi-directed sequel is still expected to finish above what Thor Ragnarok ended with: $340-350 million domestically, and around $750 million worldwide (without China/Russia).

That’s a win, even if it’s less than Disney likely would have hoped for.

Minions: The Rise of Gru ran away with another $10.98 million weekend (39% drop) for $321 million so far.  It aims to finish near the ending totals of Secret Life of Pets and Despicable Me 2 ($365-$370 million), as one of the biggest hits ever for Illumination Animation.

Top Gun: Maverick earned another $8.2 million (-20%) in its 10th weekend (!!), and is soon flying past $650 million domestic.

That puts it within a week of passing Jurassic World ($652 million in 2015) and Titanic ($659 million) to later become the 7th biggest film of all time in the U.S. box office. Wow!

The word of mouth is still on fire, plus with plenty of sky still to cover throughout August and September to earn more money. Can Tom Cruise be stopped?

Sony’s Where the Crawdads Sing continued to leg out, helped by being the summer’s only “big” movie for adult women. The Daisy Edgar-Jones $24 million melodrama earned $7.56 million (-27%) in its 3rd weekend, and should pass $70 million domestic by the end.  

That’s a terrific result for the kind of drama that has spent the last two years getting banished to streaming, and should encourage Sony to release more of their films to theaters first.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s Elvis is also benefiting from adult audiences trekking out to the theater, as the Baz-Luhrmann-directed epic earned another $6 million weekend (-12%, a phenomenal hold). 

At this rate, the $85 million Austin Butler/Tom Hanks musical biopic could reach $150 million domestically even before it becomes a major awards season player. 

As for next weekend, Sony’s Bullet Train will open as the last “big” movie of the summer. The action thriller has a stacked cast of Brad Pitt, Sandra Bullock, Bryan Tyree Henry, Zazie Beetz, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

It’s also from director David Leitch, the filmmaker behind John Wick, Atomic Blonde, and Deadpool 2. 

The hope would be that this $80-100 million budgeted action film would open with around $30 million, to then leg out for the rest of summer. But even if Bullet Train falls short of that, the film has clear sailing for the rest of August and September to find moviegoers.

And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about? 

Note: I admittedly had too many headlines to choose from this weekend (Thor crashes down to earth, Thor shows Marvel isn’t worthy anymore, Thor shows not all gods are immortal), so don’t begrudge me for not being edgy with my opening headline.

Thor: Love and Thunder is again the top movie at the U.S. box office, earning another $46 million, dropping a “really bad” -68% from last weeks opening. While that’s the worst second weekend drop ever for a Marvel-Cinematic-Universe movie, it’s still earned $233 million for its first 10 days in theaters. That’s solid by most rational standards, but not good for Marvel. 

How bad is this? Well, Marvel movies that open in mid-July tend to crash in their second weekends. Ant-Man and the Wasp, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Black Widow all took drops between 61% to 67% in their second weekends.

But Ant-Man 2 and Homecoming both recovered, and earned around 1.6x their first respective 10-day totals. Both were seen as hits. Black Widow (which had Disney+ cut into its box office) did not recover as well, only making 1.4x its first 10 days. That’s a difference of nearly $50 million.

With bad reviews and audience reactions (only a B+ CinemaScore and 3.5 stars on PostTrak), plus anticipation for Thor 4 streaming for free on Disney+, the film may have legs closer to Black Widow, or the much disliked Eternals last November.

That could mean an ending total of $315-$330 in the U.S. box office, on par with Thor 3 in 2017, despite this film opening bigger.

I’m concerned how much of a factor Disney+ will be on this film’s longevity. Maybe only the hardcore Marvel fans are showing up, while the casual fans are waiting until the movie is streaming free on Disney+.

Or, is fan fatigue happening, by this being the 29th movie in this saga? With over 4 movies and 5 Disney+ shows a year, it’s tough to know which projects moving forward are crucial to watch to understand the ongoing Marvel narrative. In the end, these are self-inflicted problems caused by Disney. 

It helps there’s basically nothing left playing in theaters as far as “superheroic fun for families”, beyond the animated DC League of Super-Pets on July 29 and The Rock’s Black Adam on October 21.

Because of that, Thor 4 could have longer legs throughout August and September.

I also wrote HERE about how the film’s mixed word of mouth is similar to 1997’s Batman 4: Batman and Robin. We’ve been down this road before.

I could be over-thinking how audiences are responding. Thor 4 has already passed $500 million worldwide, and should likely top the last Thor film’s worldwide 2017 total (without China and Russia) of $715 million. 

This could simply be another well-received “It’s entertaining, whatever” Marvel sequel, that will only perform a little better financially than Thor 3. They can’t all be Spider-Man: No Way Home.

Compare this to Top Gun Maverick, which has had no date planned for streaming / Video-On-Demand, and has been doing great with audiences all summer long.

Top Gun Maverick earned another $12 million (-23%) in its’ 8th-weekend, for $617.9 million in the U.S. and $1.236 billion so far, the biggest movie of the year. Easily one of the most impressive box office runs in my lifetime.

As for the rest of the box office, Minions 2: Rise of Gru earned another $26 million (-44%) in its third weekend, for $263 million so far. That’s a solid hold and a strong overall gross. Presuming it legs somewhere between Minions 1 and the last Despicable Me, this will likely end between $336 million and $380 million. Ironically, that would theoretically be more than Thor 4.

In smaller news, Sony’s $24 million budgeted Where the Crawdads Sing (starring Daisy Edgar-Jones, featuring a new Taylor Swift single, and based upon a very popular Delia Owens novel [12 million copies sold] ) debuted with an excellent $17 million over the weekend. Audiences reactions are good (A- CinemaScore, and 4 1/2 stars, 87% positive, 70% recommend on PostTrak).

The film, about a young woman raising herself in the marshlands after being left alone with her abusive father, is a character-focused story aimed at female adults. Considering this is one of the only “big” movies this summer aimed at adult women (that’s embarrassing), we can expect solid legs for this old-school potboiler/melodrama.

Not to be outdone, Warner Bros.’ buzzy and well-reviewed Elvis just passed $100 million in the U.S., earning another $7.6 million (-32%) in its 4th weekend. Interestingly, 71% of the audience has been women.

The musical biopic starring Austin Butler / Tom Hanks, directed by Baz Luhrmann, will soon become Warner Bros.’ biggest U.S. box office earner since Joker ($335 million in 2019) and behind The Batman ($370 million). Fantastic. This is a much needed win for the studio, and for bringing older audiences back to theaters.

Universal’s The Black Phone also passed $100 million worldwide this week, which propelled the Blumhouse studio’s lifetime total past $5 billion. This acclaimed and buzzy horror flick earned another $5.3 million (-31%) over its 4th weekend, a fantastic drop, despite now debuting on streaming. That gives the $19 million, R-rated flick a $72 million domestic cume, and much more money to come. That is assuming Universal’s own horror film Nope doesn’t take away its audience next weekend.

And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about? 

I’m personally most hyped for Nope next weekend. To me, the concept of “an epic original alien invasion thriller”, directed by Jordan Peele, sounds like an entertaining time at the movies and a great summer popcorn blockbuster. It also helps it has one of the better trailers I’ve seen so far this year.

But let’s see if the reviews are good, or if audiences even choose to show up. It cost $68 million to make, so I’m hoping for at least a $40-50 million debut. As always, we’ll see.

I do enjoy hearing the notion of Thor 4 being compared to Batman 4: Batman & Robin. It’s not an exact comparison (Thor as a character is nowhere near as bad or annoying to sit through), but hear me out…

With each franchise, a new director was brought in to “fix” the franchise (Taika Waititi and Joel Schumacher respectively), after a disappointingly received second film.

They were then acclaimed for “saving” the franchise, by making a lighter, more comical third film (Thor: Ragnarok and Batman Forever). Both were successful enough for the studio to allow the filmmaker to do whatever they wanted with the next film, albeit with a time constraint. “Get the fourth film out fast”…

And then with the fourth film, it wasn’t just the studio to blame; the writer/director was seen as going “too far” in the comedy and tone, even for general moviegoers. The comedy just didn’t mix as well with the material, undercutting the story, disappointing fans, and weak legs at the box office.

Hell both Thor 4 and Batman 4 have a bald monochromatic tragic villain, weird jealousies from the sidekicks, a terminal-illness subplot, gay subtext, a campy secondary villain [Zeus / Poison Ivy] who makes uncomfortable sex jokes… the comparisons goes on.

To me it’s an interesting comparison as far as superhero downgrades from the 3rd-to-4th movie, but also shows there’s light at the end of the tunnel. We’ve gone down this path before. There’s room to improve with the next movie, hopefully by adding a new director.

Most franchises would be thrilled to have a comedy-sequel earn mixed-positive reviews, and open 17% bigger than it’s predecessor. But with mixed critical and audience reactions, why did the film not earn the positivity that was expected?

This new Thor movie was my most anticipated sequel of the summer, given how much the last film Thor: Ragnarok was such a fun comic book blockbuster, and showed there was still life to find in this franchise. That film opened with $123 million in 2017, with fans loving it in context of how its story took place in preparation before the new Avengers. 

Now it’s 2022, and Thor 4 Love and Thunder opened to $143 million this past weekend, a bit below the optimistic projections from Disney (expecting $150-170 million), but still, a 17% higher debut than Ragnarok is fine.

It’s the third biggest opening of the year, and for what is considered ”just” a Thor sequel, with little feeling of “you gotta see this immediately”, Love and Thunder opened about in line with what it expected to this weekend.  

However, there are possible signs of peril going on. The film pulled lousy reviews for a Marvel comedy (69% Rotten Tomatoes) but it’s the weak audience reactions (B+ CinemaScore) that scare me. 

That’s one of the worst audience reactions for a MCU movie. It’s one thing when a polarizing space odyssey like Eternals earns a B, or a horror fantasy like Doctor Strange 2 earns a B+, as those genres were seen as somewhat “experiments” for Marvel. But Thor is a “generic” crowd pleasing superhero comedy, so its weak reaction is a bad sign. 

It’s been years after the “Infinity Saga” of Marvel ended with Avengers: Endgame in 2019, where we used to grade each film on a curve as part of a grander achievement in storytelling. Now in 2022 as the MCU begins to lack focus or direction with each project in an ongoing narrative, are audiences beginning to become harsher and more discerning? 

Is it due to the director Taika Waititi’s absurdist sense of humor? Maybe not every joke is landing.

Is Marvel overextending itself in pumping out too many movies and Disney+ series? Do we blame the pandemic feature production rush here? 2022 alone has 4 Marvel movies and 5 Disney+ shows.

Thor: Love and Thunder is another wake-up call to the MCU development department. If films become too cookie-cutter, ticket sales will decline.

PostTrak, which tracks general audiences seeing the film, has Thor at 3 1/2 stars with a 77% positive, not far from Eternals’ 75%. Kids are ONLY making up 4% of the audience, which is terribly small, given the film’s narrative about saving Asgard’s children. 

See the proportion of ages and genders as % of the audience:

The most encouraging score for Thor: Love and Thunder is coming from women over 25 at 82% positive, who could be really connecting to Jane Foster’s Cancer storyline and arc in this movie.

On the bright side, 53% of those who saw Thor: Love and Thunder bought their tickets the day they saw the movie. To me that indicates a lot of people are seeing the movie when they can, with high “walk-up” business and legs for the rest of summer. The film also earned stellar business overseas, earning $302 million Worldwide.

I’m still expecting a BIG significant 2nd-weekend-drop next week (-65% or more), than it should level out throughout July and August, given the lack of *big* family friendly competition besides DC’s Super Pets until Black Adam in October. 

Either way, theater owners aren’t complaining, as the Box Office overall has reached pre-pandemic levels! The overall marketplace is around $236 Million, above the same post-4th-of-July weekend in 2019 with $183 million where SpiderMan far From Home was #1. But it’s not just superhero movies helping theaters, thanks to 3 other movies also grossing above $10 million this weekend.

Minions: Rise of Gru earned another $45.5 million (-57%), with $210 million so far, and the potential to end with $325-335 million in the U.S. On an $80 million budget, this Minions sequel / Despicable Me prequel is already a hit at $400 million Worldwide, even it’s still performing better in America than overseas.

The #GentleMinions trend likely helped last weekend, and is still assisting the generational nostalgia present here. Expecting Despicable Me 4 in 2024. 

Top Gun: Maverick is nearing $1.2 billion worldwide, as the $170-million-budgeted legacy Sequel, earned another $15.5 million in its 7th weekend, -40%, the first “normal” drop in its entire run. 

Still with another $15 million, that’s the third biggest 7th weekend ever behind Titanic ($26 million) and Avatar ($31 million). Still expecting to end with over $700 million in the U.S. Wow!

Elvis earned another $11 million (-40%) in weekend three for a $91.122 million 17-day cume. With word that the Baz Luhrmann-directed rock-n-roll biopic will NOT be heading to HBO Max after 45 days, it should continue to hold along Top Gun for the rest of summer as “event movies for older adults”.

This is a great win for Warner Brothers, whose Elvis could end with around $130-140 million domestic, and maybe some Oscar nominations.

Universal’s Jurassic World Dominion earned $8.41 million (-49%) with a  $350 million 31-day U.S. cume. The $185-million-budgeted Dino finale will arrive on “rent it for $20” PVOD this coming Thursday. Still, history shows that shouldn’t hurt the theatrical run much. 

We’re still looking at an over/under $370 million domestic end, and a global total of over/under $925 million.

Universal and Blumhouse’s The Black Phone earned $7.66 million (-37%) for a terrific $62 million domestic and $99 million worldwide so far. This one might drop on PVOD this coming Thursday, but the $19-million-budgeted crowd-pleaser has had solid legs for an original, R-rated thriller. 

Walt Disney’s Lightyear earned $2.9 million (-55%) in weekend four for a miserable $112.2 million domestic and $202 million global cume. Those who blame its LGBT content should look at those Thor 4 and Jurassic World 3 grosses. The sci-fi actioner/Toy Story spinoff should remain the lowest Pixar grosser ever.

At this point, Disney is now becoming even more financially reliant on Marvel / Avatar / Star Wars projects, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Nice to meet everyone on here! My name is Zander Levy, and for the last decade or so I’ve enjoyed writing and the box office, films and their financial success, and what it takes for a studio to succeed! This is my Film Blog, attempting to be thought-provoking.

As I’m typing this it’s 2022, and over the summer we’ve had SEVERAL big blockbusters over-performing, meeting expectations, and working in saving movie theaters! I think we’re at the point where it’s safe to say COVID doesn’t have much of an effect anymore, at least for the big movies. Keep reading to hear my thoughts Essays, Reviews, Commentary, and original analysis!