I was tempted to give this story the headline, “Will Smith Slaps The Box Office Into Overdrive”, but it seemed like such low-hanging fruit.
The last time I wrote in this blog it was last summer, as Barbenheimer was saving the summer box office, which brought the 2023 box office to unprecedented heights post-COVID.
Now in 2024, how are the summer movies shaping up? Well…..
If you believe industry pundits, then the box office and theatrical industry are DYING right now.
But actually, the industry is in a much, much better state than you may think. Here are 5 reasons to have optimism.
REASON #1: NO, THE SKY IS NOT FALLING
Ever since The Fall Guy underperformed in early May, there has been a narrative out there that movie theaters and theatrical moviegoing are dying, which has been compounded by hundreds of pundits in the entertainment media and trades, who keep repeating the same mantra: because the big summer releases were flopping, “the sky is falling”.
COVID and streaming have unequivocally changed moviegoing habits, for sure.
But last year’s strikes delayed movies that were expected to be “tentpole” events for summer 2024 (Mission: Impossible 8, Captain America: Brave New World, and ESPECIALLY Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse) into 2025. This has lead the industry to have higher expectations for the movies being released this summer.
The strikes also greatly increased the budget for many of these movies too, making it harder to earn a profit. See below for what I mean (items in red highlight my point).
| Film Title | Pre-Release Opening Weekend Expectations | ACTUAL Opening Weekend | Average Budget for Films in this genre or franchise | ACTUAL Film Budget |
The Fall Guy | $35-40 million | $27 million | $70-90 million (original movie-star-driven action comedy) | $150 million |
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | $50 million | $58 million | $150-170 million (Apes Franchise) | $165 million |
If | $40 million | $33 million | $60-80 million (original family CGI/live-action hybrid) | $110 million |
| Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | $50 million | $32 million | $150 million (Mad Max franchise) | $168 million |
| Garfield | $30 million | $31 million | $60-100 million (animated family film based on IP) | $60 million |
| Bad Boys Ride or Die | $30 million | $57 million | $90-130 million (Bad Boys franchise) | $100 million |
Looking at this table, 3 out of the 6 big films released this summer (The Fall Guy, If, Furiosa) have failed to meet their Pre-Release Expectations for Opening Weekend, and COST WAY TOO MUCH to possibly make a profit.
However, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Garfield, and now Bad Boys Ride or Die prove that there is still demand and life in these respective franchises, as long as they set their expectations and budget right.
REASON #2: MANAGE EXPECTATIONS AND BUDGET
The latest installment in the Bad Boys franchise Bad Boys Ride or Die has defied expectations, by opening with a whopping $57 million.
One smart thing Sony Pictures did was to set low expectations, only predicting a TINY $30 million opening. But then on opening day it earned a $22 million, Day 2 $20 million, and Day 3 $15 million.
Those same industry pundits who a few weeks ago were doom and gloom are now gushing – “surprise hit!!”, and “Never saw this coming”.
But if Sony had followed the expectations model of Furiosa and Planet of the Apes (both expected to open with $50 million), pundits might have just yawned. There’s nothing like beating a low target soundly to create a sense of success.
REASON #3: MARKET TO YOUR CORE AUDIENCE
While the last Bad Boys film’s audience was mostly evenly split racially (42% African American, 30% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic), this new film’s audience leaned MUCH more heavy towards people of color (44% African American, 26% Hispanic, and ONLY 18% Caucasian).
This makes sense, as Will Smith and Martin Lawrence prioritized a bigger share of the film’s marketing budget to BIPOC media outlets, than they did for any other other Bad Boys film. They knew that if they could get their BASE fanbase fired up, the rest would come along for the ride… and boom.
Sony’s decision to market the film as an event for core demographics absolutely payed off.
REASON #4: STAR POWER AND CHEMISTRY
Like the previous films, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence have delivered the same lively, energetic, and entertaining performances that fans have come to want and expect.
And the reaction to Bad Boys 4 has thus far been very positive.
It earned an A- CinemaScore grade from audiences (a bit lower than the previous 3 films’ A grades), so while it may arguably be the “worst” film in the series, this success proves that there is still life left in this franchise.
The success of this film also signifies a triumphant return for Will Smith, who has been absent from leading blockbuster roles for the past 5 years.
Now that he is officially “back”, it wouldn’t be surprising if a studio gives him a big blockbuster leading role again, like potentially I Am Legend 2 or Men In Black 4. He’s got the chops, he’s still beloved, and he can obviously still sell tickets.
This opening and reception sets the stage for Bad Boys 4 to end with 160M+ in the U.S. (bigger than the last Fast and Furious movie, and on par with the last Mission: Impossible, as far as long running action franchises go domestically).
Worldwide, it will likely end with $300 million+. On a $100 million budget, that’s a huge success.
Expect Bad Boys V: Five Times the Trouble in a few years.
REASON #5: CHEAP ANIMATED FAMILY MOVIES STILL DO WELL
Sony’s family-friendly Garfield reboot continues to perform steadily, earning $10.1 million in its third weekend (-29% from last weekend) for a total of $68.9 million in the U.S., and a likely final total of $230+ million worldwide.
While not a blowout hit, especially with Inside Out 2 coming out next weekend, the film has earned a respectable amount of money from families, given its expectations and low $60 million budget.
And because I feel like it, here’s an side on the other films:
Both If (-24% for a $93 million 24-day total) and The Fall Guy (-35% for a $85 million 38-day total) are holding nicely with solid drops due to great word of mouth.
Yet, due to underwhelming overall box office (If and The Fall Guy will likely end with only $220-240 million and $175-200 million worldwide respectively), and extremely high budgets as I mentioned earlier, neither of them will earn a profit theatrically. It’s tragic, but not surprising. Remember, keep your budgets in check!
20th Century Studios / Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes remains the highest grossing movie of this summer, with a fifth weekend of $5.75 million (-36% from last weekend) and a domestic U.S. total of $151 million. The film has a $165 million budget, and will likely finish worldwide with around $375-$390 million, a modest success for a blockbuster nowadays.
Ultimately, Kingdom feels like a movie that will do very well on streaming/VOD, and could be discovered by much more people after it’s theatrical run. I’d expect the next film – as long as it comes out within 2-4 years of this film – to have an increase in the box office.
I think for the next film, they should get a more recognizable actor/actress to play one of the main human characters. Kingdom has NO STARS in the film, which helped the budget, but likely also hurt it’s promotions/ marketing and general awareness.
Warner Brothers’ Furiosa continues to slide into a box office pit of despair, earning just $4.1 million in its 3rd weekend (-61% from last weekend) for a total of $58 million in the U.S. and $144 million worldwide. It has taken took 3 weeks for Furiosa to earn what Bad Boys will earn in 3 days. Yikes!
I’m expecting a $180-200 million worldwide finish, which on a $168 million budget, is a horrible flop. Too bad, BUT I LOVED IT ANYWAY!
I have 2 takeaways from Furiosa’s dreadful box office performance: #1 The lightning-in-a-bottle reception of Fury Road was NOT replicable without Tom Hardy or Charlize Theron.
#2: Telling the origin story of an iconic fan-favorite character (paired with a younger/less popular actor) is box office poison, no matter how good it ends up being (see also Solo: A Star Wars Story or Pixar’s Lightyear).
If Furiosa does end up being the last film in the Mad Max franchise, it would be tragic, but understandable.
At least director George Miller can stand tall (at the age of 80 !!) that he made this franchise the way he wanted, earning high praise from critics and audiences each time, even with low box office returns.
WHY NEXT WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THEATERS ARE ALIVE
Next weekend comes the release of the Inside Out 2, which will be a huge test on the viability of Pixar’s brand, over the past 4 years of their *arguably* best films (like Soul or Luca) getting dumped for free on Disney+.
The industry is expecting an $80-90 million opening weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it potentially opens over $100+ million. Ticket pre-sales have been excellent so far, and 9 years ago the first Inside Out opened with $90 million. We’ll see!
Next weekend should also have a great drop for Bad Boys 4, with Fathers Day next Sunday. It’s crazy to think that a Bad Boys movie can now qualify as Dad-friendly-entertainment, but don’t be surprised: this is an action movie starring two men pushing 60.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
I’m looking forward to writing again in this column next weekend.
Zan Hollywood Box Office - Analysis Site 
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