Twisters massively over-performed this weekend, storming the box office with a phenomenal $81 million opening weekend— far surpassing the predicted $40-50 million.
The momentum for this sequel kept building bigger throughout the weekend, just like a tornado in real life.
This is officially now the highest opening ever for a disaster film, passing The Day After Tomorrow’s $69 million debut.
The central theme around the box office this weekend is that: we have a robust and thriving theatrical marketplace. Every film in the top 5 is performing exceptionally well, and there are strong reasons to be optimistic about upcoming releases this year.
But first, let’s dive into the 4 key reasons why Twisters is creating a perfect storm at the box office.
REASON #1: THE FIRST TWISTER WAS A MASSIVE HIT IN 1996, SHOWING THE VALUE OF NATURAL DISASTER FILMS
The first Twister film, from 1996, featured groundbreaking special effects at the time, and was released after years where there were almost NO BIG-BUDGET DISASTER MOVIES for years before it (remember The Towering Inferno in 1974?).
Twister (1996) was so successful that it even became the second highest grossing film of the year behind Independence Day, earning $241 million in the U.S., or about $650 million adjusted for inflation in today’s dollars.
And there’s been very few tornado-centric disaster films since 1996, aside from Into The Storm in 2014.
Sometimes, you just wanna see pretty people chase tornadoes, and that’s enough.
Both films (Twister and Twisters) target a genre (natural disasters) that hasn’t been given attention in decades. So after this success, expect to see a lot more natural disaster films from Hollywood.
Look out for Michael Crichton’s blockbuster novel Eruption, which is getting adapted into a movie by Sony soon!
That could be a big hit, especially since it’ll be made by the directors of Free Solo.
REASON #2: THE FILM DELIVERS, AS A FUN CROWD-PLEASING DISASTER MOVIE SPECTACLE
Twisters earned mostly solid reviews and buzz from critics (78% on Rotten Tomatoes), and is playing very well with general audiences, who are finding it fun (It earned an “A-“ grade from CinemaScore, plus a 92% verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes).
Universal’s marketing department did a great job selling the film, attracting both coastal-elite cities and the Mid-West, such as in-theater advertisements such as the “Tornado Wind Tunnel Machines”, plus new hit country songs from the soundtrack, like “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma.”
Pair the fun marketing campaign, with Oscar-nominated Minari filmmaker Lee Isaac Chung, who was the right guy to direct this material: He’s from Arkansas, knows these characters well, and it’s not shocking to see the flyover states thundering to cinemas.
Fun fact: the No. 1 theater in the country was the Regal Warren in Moore, OK (suburb of Oklahoma City). When does that ever happen?
I saw the film myself over the weekend, and it is a ton of fun, and works as the platonic ideal of a summer blockbuster (it has plenty of visceral thrills, cool sound design, plus a well-cast trio of leads who play the tornado chasers).
Twisters‘ success shows that there is still an appetite for exciting non-trashy disaster movies, as long as they star an appealing spectacle and cast.
REASON #3: IS GLEN POWELL NOW A MOVIE STAR?
24% on Twisters’ audience said they bought a ticket because of Glen Powell: a very encouraging stat for a rising movie star.
No, this doesn’t mean that Glen Powell can bring in audiences for every movie. It’s important to remember that Glen Powell provided added value because he first scored in the $215 million-grossing rom-com Anyone But You from last year.
Glen Powell is likely an A-level added value element, who can increase interest for already appealing franchise films.
This is especially true when Glen Powell plays a seemingly cocky, super-charismatic hunk, who turns out to be an okay guy.
Here’s a suggestion: if Paramount does even up making a Top Gun 3, maybe they should make Glen Powell the main character next time instead of Miles Teller, with Tom Cruise as the mentor!
I also hope that the other stars of Twisters (Daisy Edger Jones from Where The Crawdads Sing, Anthony Ramos from In The Heights & Transformers 6), can build long lasting careers off the success of this.
REASON #4: LACK OF PG-13 EVENT FILMS THIS SUMMER
Even though we’re already in the middle of July, Twisters is only just the third big PG-13 franchise tentpole of the summer.
Every other big film so far this summer has been either rated-R, or was a family/kids film.
Come what may, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was a post-apocalyptic sci-fi melodrama (albeit less violent and nihilistic than the previous films), while at the same time, A Quiet Place: Day One was still a sad apocalyptic horror movie.
This absence of crowd-pleasing PG-13 blockblusters so far this summer has created a vacuum, which Twisters has clearly filled.
And Twisters may also be the LAST crowdpleaser of the summer too, aside from Deadpool & Wolverine.
Think about it: after Deadpool & Wolverine, what’s left to open this summer?
August only has thrillers/horror films (Trap, Cuckoo, Alien: Romulus, Blink Twice), or niche video-game or book adaptations (It Ends With Us, Borderlands, The Crow).
I’m not saying these films will perform badly, but they’re all smaller movies, and very few of them will have the wide crowd pleasing appeal of a film like Twisters.
Twisters is arguably the only film left for families and general movie-goers to watch and enjoy for the rest of summer.
And considering the somewhat weak competition in August, I’m predicting a U.S. total of $240-275+ million for Twisters, for a total of $390-425+ million worldwide.
But wait, why am I only predicting under $150 million internationally for Twisters? Well….
AND YET… WHY IS TWISTERS BOMBING OVERSEAS?
The only reason to be pessimistic about Twisters (aside from Deadpool & Wolverine which will take away its IMAX/Dolby screens next weekend) is its admittedly dismal international box office.
After two weekends overseas, Twisters has only earned $44 million, which is….. not good. It’s likely going to earn less international box office than the first Twister back in 1996. So why aren’t overseas audiences interested?
I think it’s proof that you’re not gonna sell tickets in Asia and Europe with Great Plains, rodeos, tornados and country music.
Comparatively, a international blockbuster disaster-movie like 2012 had multiple set pieces in different parts of the world, plus its third act was set in China.
Twisters was always going to be a tough sell internationally.
Maybe next time they should show the devastation of major U.S. landmarks, if they want to interest overseas audiences.
With a $155 million budget (and a potential total of $390-420+ million worldwide) Twisters will still definitely turn a profit in the long run, even if it’s underwhelming in places like Asia and Europe.
Universal has plenty to pump its chest about this weekend, as it will also own second place with Illumination’s Despicable Me 4, which earned $24 million (-44%) in its third weekend.
The film is mainly succeeding because of positive word-of-mouth from families, and currently stands at $259.5 million domestically and $575 million worldwide.
Despicable Me 4 is expected to end with about $350+ million domestically and $800+ million worldwide, on par with the previous films in the franchise.
Despite this being the sixth film, this franchise is not showing any signs of slowing down commercially. Bring on Minions 3 in 2027!
Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 earned $13 million in its sixth weekend (-36% from last weekend) and a running total of $596 million domestically. With these spectacular legs, I’m expecting an ending total of $650+ domestically.
Overseas Inside Out 2 is performing even better ($847 million internationally so far), and is now expected to potentially top $1 BILLION alone in international box office.
If it tops $1.66+ billion worldwide, it would then pass The Lion King (2019) remake as the highest grossing animated film ever.
No wonder Disney is moving forward with Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 this year and next!
Disney sequels mean big box office.
Pixar can only hope that their next two ORIGINAL films (Elio in 2025 and another in 2026) will earn at least a THIRD as much as Inside Out 2 will earn at the worldwide box office.
Neon’s Longlegs had a second weekend of another $12 million (-47% from its opening weekend), a phenomenal drop for a horror title, especially considering the mixed word-of-mouth (it earned a “C+” grade from CinemaScore, a “meh” reaction for a horror film).
Credit this drop to the white-hot buzz, and conversation around Nicholas Cages terrifying performance. Longlegs has a $46 million running total so far, already the highest grossing Neon release EVER.
With these “long-legs” at the box office, the film is expected to now end between $60-70 million. This is a spectacular blow-out performance for a serial killer drama, especially since it only cost less then $5 million to make.
Fifth place belongs to Paramount’s A Quiet Place: Day One, which earned another $6.3 million in its fourth weekend (-44% from last weekend) for a running total of $128 million.
A Quiet Place: Day One is expected to finish with about $145-150 million in the U.S. and $270-280 million worldwide. The film only cost $68 million too, so this is a smashing success for everyone involved.
A Quiet Place: Day One’s performance is on par with A Quiet Place: Part II (also $160 million domestically and $290 worldwide), which makes this even more impressive considering this is a prequel, with none of the original cast.
My vote for the next film would be: show us how this apocalypse went down in Europe!
Looking to next weekend, while Twisters’ success serves as a great palette cleanser, Deadpool & Wolverine is set to conquer the world next weekend.
Despite the recent Marvel superhero fatigue, the hype is truly real with this, as Marvel fans do really want to see how Deadpool, as well as the X-Men, will be introduced into the universe.
We’ll see how front-loaded Deadpool & Wolverine plays with fans. The film is Rated-R, like the previous two Deadpool films, and there’s also very few action-comedy films playing in theaters right now.
Deadpool & Wolverine is expected to open with $175+ million, but personally I’m predicting an opening over $200+ million. Hell, given how awesome ticket pre-sales have been, maybe even $225+ million!
With Twisters though, even if it only drops 55-60% due to Deadpool, I think the odds are strong for both films to have great runs throughout all of August.
And that’s the weekend box office! I’m looking forward to writing again in this column next weekend when Deadpool & Wolverine opens, and as the rest of the August films begin to open.
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