Take a grumpy, old (retired?), badass loner and a foul mouthed, fourth wall breaking wise cracker – coupled with promises of groundbreaking changes for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and a heavy dose of tongue in cheek humor at the absurdity of the superhero genre – and you get Deadpool & Wolverine achieving a record-breaking $211 million opening weekend.
This opening is more than just massive, it’s downright historic. This is the 6th biggest U.S. opening of all time, the biggest opening ever for the month of July, and the biggest opening ever for an R-rated movie, surpassing the previous record held by the first Deadpool movie in 2016 ($132 million), and Logan in 2017 ($88 million).
This weekend has been a wild one for Marvel, as this is happening on the heels of a killer Saturday night in San Diego Comic Con, where they announced Robert Downey Jr. is returning to play Dr. Doom (hey won’t people notice he sounds a lot like Iron Man?), and the Russo Brothers are returning as directors for Avengers: Doomsday in 2026, and Avengers: Secret Wars in 2027.
But after years of fans saying that they’re getting tired of Marvel movies, why did Deadpool & Wolverine do so well? This debut is encouraging for multiple reasons.
REASON #1: FANS (YOUNG AND OLD) STILL LOVE AND ADORE RYAN REYNOLDS AS DEADPOOL
It’s hard not to argue that overall interest in superhero films has decreased since 2019, especially with the over-saturation of the genre.
And yet, regardless of people’s continued investment in Marvel or the ongoing story, the humor Reynolds infuses into the Deadpool character is still incredibly popular, with a fanbase that spans multiple generations.
People who liked the first Deadpool movies are still coming back. 69% of Deadpool & Wolverine‘s audience was over the age 25, compared to 53% over 25 for the first Deadpool in 2016.
Deadpool 3 appeals to those who were too young to see Deadpool and Deadpool 2 in theaters, because of the R-rating. Younger audiences discovered his movies at home and cemented the bankability of Ryan Reynolds through his more kid-friendly films, like Detective Pikachu, Free Guy, The Adam Project, Red Notice and most recently If.
Deadpool has always been a personal passion for Ryan Reynolds, and he along with the writers (Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, & Zeb Wells) have a formula which clearly works for the character.
But 20th Century Fox execs were allegedly terrified of making an R-rated superhero movie, reducing him to a nearly unrecognizable cameo in X-Men Origins: Wolverine.
Not to be deterred, Ryan Reynolds basically forced Fox’s hand in 2016, and leaked test footage of the character in order to get fans excited about the first Deadpool film, which when on to gross $782 million at the box office.
As a lover of the superhero genre, Reynolds’ Deadpool movies were never single character driven. Cameos and references to X-Men and other Marvel (or even DC) characters abounded.
Which is the irony – As Disney/Fox looks to reboot or reset the X-Men storyline, it will make sense that they would rely upon Reynolds’ Deadpool – the character they didn’t believe in in the first place to be their “Marvel Jesus” – a comment Deadpool cleverly references himself to in the latest film.
REASON #2: HUGH JACKMAN’S RETURN AS WOLVERINE ALSO MADE THIS A MUST-SEE FILM FOR FANS
Whether the return of Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (7 years after his poignant farewell in Logan) and teaming him up with Deadpool (who hasn’t been seen since his second film 6 years ago) heightened interest or merely prevented a potential decline, the inclusion of Wolverine undoubtedly played a crucial role.
Wolverine’s last appearance in Logan (2017) was considered a franchise pinnacle, sparking a lot of curiosity about how (if?) he would return.
I would argue that the absence of these characters has indeed made fans’ hearts grow fonder.
With that said, an opening of $211 million is still MASSIVE for both these characters.
No Iron Man, Captain America, or Thor solo film has ever came close to a $200 million opening weekend.
This success only further cements Spider-Man, Deadpool and Wolverine as Marvel’s 3 biggest heroes that they have left.
Expect each of these 3 characters to be all over the marketing for Avengers: Doomsday or Avengers: Secret Wars.
REASON #3: THE FILM SHOWS THAT THE MULTIVERSE DOESN’T MATTER, INSTEAD SERVING AS A FAREWELL TO THE X-MEN/FOX UNIVERSE
While the trailers just teased the on-screen team-up of Deadpool and Wolverine, they cleverly hid surprise appearances from characters across the Marvel 20th Century Fox films, as a surprise love-letter with Easter Eggs from across the entire Fox/X-Men era.
However, this films’ crossover-appeal succeeds not because of the concept of the “multiverse”, but despite it.
Without giving away any spoilers, Deadpool literally tells the audience at one point that the multiverse doesn’t matter, beyond providing characters an ending that they deserve.
Deadpool & Wolverine as a film excels in its homage to the Fox/X-Men universe, much like how Spider-Man: No Way Home resonated with multiple generations of Spider-Man fans. They both drew from the weight of several decades of superhero films.
This approach is much more satisfying than just a brief “hey remember this character?” dangling-of-keys 5-second multiverse cameo (Looking at you, Doctor Strange 2 and The Flash).
The main takeaway from these multiverse crossover films is that they only work if the original actors return, the characters remain fun, and they contribute meaningfully to the story or themes.
WHAT DOES THIS SUCCESS MEAN FOR DISNEY/MARVEL’S FUTURE?
Deadpool & Wolverine is another example of Disney cashing in on the artistic and commercial achievements originally born of 20th Century Fox, relying on nostalgia for the very franchises they bought from a corporate merger (Avatar, Star Wars, Planet of the Apes, the upcoming Alien).
As successful as Deadpool & Wolverine is, I don’t think it will automatically get fans excited for every future Marvel moveie.
BUT – it does give hope that there is still a market for good, clever super hero movies.
For instance, Captain America: Brave New World will have a serious uphill battle commercially, because it deals with new actors playing iconic characters. I mean, I guess — Harrison Ford as the Red Hulk?Falcon taking up the mantle of Captain America? Sounds a bit like elevator music playing in the background.
Deadpool & Wolverine‘s success doesn’t all of a sudden mean that audiences are interested in more Marvel-related projects coming up the pipeline.
HOW MUCH MONEY WILL DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE EVENTUALLY END UP WITH?
Deadpool & Wolverine earned an “A” CinemaScore grade from audiences, and a 96% positive score off of PostTrak, indicating spectacular word of mouth from general audiences and fans.
Even if it drops hard next weekend, the marketplace in August is pretty wide-open for Deadpool to play as the last blockbuster of the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised with a domestic finish of $550+ million. Worldwide, it could hit $1.2-1.3 billion.
IN OTHER BOX OFFICE NEWS…
The overall weekend box office reached $275 million (up about 30% from last year), showing great strength for the other films playing in theaters, even with the colossal juggernaut of Deadpool & Wolverine.
You could argue it was an unforced error for Universal to release Twisters in such close proximity to Deadpool & Wolverine, since it lost so many premium screens and showtimes.
Personally, couldn’t they have at least tried to keep some 4DX screens for Twisters? Seriously, that 4DX technology felt tailor-made for the film.
For a glass-half-full perspective, while Twisters did fall 57% in its second weekend, it still earned another $35 million for a total of $155 million so far in the U.S.
By earning this against Deadpool, this is an encouraging hold and given the size of the upcoming films coming out in August, Twisters has the potential to eventually leg out to $250-275 million domestically.
But while Twisters is over-performing in the U.S., it might not even hit $100 million overseas. It’ll still turn a profit on a $155 million budget, but this is a real disappointing international performance.
An important lesson: if you make a big disaster film, you gotta destroy some famous national landmarks! Seriously, it’s the best way to get international audiences interested in a big epic disaster film.
Illumination/Universal’s Despicable Me 4 earned another $14.6 million in its 4th weekend (-40% from its previous weekend). The film is expected to finish with $350+ million domestically and $800+ million worldwide.
Despite this being the sixth film, this franchise is not showing any signs of slowing down commercially. Bring on Minions 3 in 2027!
And with these numbers, the Despicable Me franchise has also now officially passed $5 billion worldwide.
Your move, Shrek 5 and Toy Story 5!
Disney has even more to celebrate this weekend.
Inside Out 2 earned another $8.6 million in its 7th weekend (-33% from its previous weekend), officially becoming the highest-grossing animated film ever, both domestically (beating Incredibles 2‘s $608.5 million) and worldwide (passing Frozen 2’s $1.453 billion).
And it’s still not done! I’m expecting Inside Out 2 to finish with $650 million domestically, and potentially $1.7 billion worldwide.
No wonder Disney is moving forward with Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 this year and next!
Disney sequels mean big box office.
Neon’s Longlegs continued to show “long legs” at the box office, with another great hold in its third weekend (-43% from last weekend) earning another $6.8 million, another phenomenal drop for a horror title.
Longlegs has a $58 million running total so far, making it the highest grossing Neon release by a WIDE MARGIN, and is now expected to end with $75+ million domestically.
This is a spectacular blow-out performance for a serial killer drama, especially since it only cost less then $10 million to make.
It will be interesting to see director Oz Perkins’ next film (supposedly it’s an adaptation of Stephen King’s short story The Monkey), and to see what other new bizarre character Nicholas Cage will play next.
As for next weekend, it’s finally August!
I’m still expecting Deadpool & Wolverine to dominate the top spot, even if it potentially drops -60%.
But who knows: with no blockbuster competition Deadpool & Wolverine might have an even better hold, and maybe even closer to a -50% drop (which would be AMAZING).
The only other film opening next weekend is writer/director M. Night Shyamalan’s newest thriller, Trap.
In the film Josh Hartnett plays Cooper, a seemingly loving father who takes his daughter to a pop concert, but who quickly realizes the concert is a “trap” for the police to catch a serial killer known as “The Butcher.” But the twist? Cooper IS “The Butcher” — or he at least appears to be.
The buzz around the film is “M. Night Shyamalan has done it again!”, and that he’s crafted another sublime intense thriller.
The potential is there for Trap to be a big break out for horror fans, with a potential $20+ million opening next weekend.
And that’s the weekend box office! Let me know what you think in the comments below, and please like and subscribe.
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