What is a “Barbenheimer” level event? It’s two big movies (i.e. Barbie and Oppenheimer) that can open the same day, target different audiences, and still have HUGE opening weekends (a combined $244 million) and massively successful worldwide box office ($2.4 billion).
Now over the past weekend of November 22nd, we have the somewhat contrived “Glicked” (Universal’s Wicked + Paramount’s Gladiator II). The films opened $112.5 million and $55 million respectively, for a combined $167.5 million between them both.
On the surface, “Glicked” is clearly trying to imitate the “Barbenheimer” event from last year – two incredibly different high-profile movies in terms of gender (the opening night was 72% women for Wicked, and 61% male for Gladiator II).
And thankfully instead of cannibalizing each other, there seems to be a movie for everybody with these two films.
But while “Glicked” is a pretty funny name to say out loud, and overall both films are doing well (movie theater owners rejoice!), it’s not the combined juggernaut many were hoping it would be.
Here are a few key points in comparing Wicked and Gladiator II, in order to understand why one is more successful than the other.
1. BOTH FILMS ARE TRYING TO ADAPT OR RECAPTURE THE MAGIC FROM THEIR IMMENSELY POPULAR BRANDS
Based on the 1995 novel of the same name by Gregory Maguire, Wicked is one of the most successful Broadway musicals ever, which in 2016 surpassed over $1 Billion in overall Broadway revenue with many fans seeing the musical multiple times.
It should be no surprise that Hollywood has been trying to get a movie version of Wicked off the ground since 2016.
And now after 8 years of development, 3 different directors (and the decision to release this story in 2 parts !!) the film adaptation of Wicked is finally here.
And with a huge marketing blitz by Universal Pictures, this truly feels like an event for musical lovers.
38% of the audience for Wicked was over the age of 35, perhaps driven by the women who saw Wicked on stage, who are now moms taking their own kids to see the movie.
And by casting new stars like Ariana Grande, the film was able to appeal to fans who may have never even seen the original musical.
In contrast, the first Gladiator was a Best Picture winning movie back in 2000, starring a peak-charismatic Russell Crowe, while featuring a grounded yet epic story focused on revenge.
It was a true epic summer blockbuster, and inspired a series of other big-budget sword-and-sandal action epics that followed (Troy, Kingdom Of Heaven, 300, etc).
Audiences haven’t had one of these “sword-and-sandal” movies for nearly a generation. This maybe explains why the film is pulling a younger male demographic, which is encouraging for an R-rated sequel to a 24 year old action movie. 24% of Gladiator II’s audience was under the age of 25.
This was likely helped by selling the prospect of an A-level movie star like Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian, The Last Of Us) doing sword-fights, even if he’s not even the main character.
For many younger audiences, this was something they had never seen before.
And then you have the Denzel Washington factor, who attracts both men and women. 37% of Gladiator II‘s audience said they wanted to go see the film for Denzel Washington.
In fact, sometimes the film feels like Training Day with sandals, simply because of Denzel.
Both Wicked and Gladiator II tried to recapture the magic from popular brands, with attractive new casts, and an attempt to make it an event to those who may not already be fans.
2. MOVIEGOERS ARE LOVING WICKED, BUT THINK GLADIATOR II IS ONLY OKAY?
Audiences walked out loving Wicked, granting the film not just an “A” grade from CinemaScore, but a 92% positive score on PostTrak and a 97% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is amazing for a blockbuster.
Audiences are coming out of Wicked raving about the incredible production design, musical numbers, and pitch-perfect casting of Ariana Grande as Glinda, who is even receiving “Best Supporting Actor” buzz around her performance.
Another factor that may lead to intense repeat viewership for Wicked is its ending.
Whether you agree with the choice to split the story of Wicked in 2 parts or not, it allows “Part 1” to end on the emotional high note of the story, climaxing with a blow-out rendition of the show’s signature song, “Defying Gravity”.
Once my screening of Wicked ended on Friday night, I literally saw people in my audience applauding, giving a standing ovation, and pumping their fists up in the air. The ending is that good.
From the sheer power of Wicked’s show-stopping ending, don’t be surprised if word of mouth continues to be huge for Wicked for weeks or even months.
In contrast, Gladiator II has received very mixed-positive reactions in America. It earned an “B” grade from CinemaScore, compared to the “A” grade from the first Gladiator.
The reviews for Gladiator 2 are simply “fine”, with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes (compared to 80% for the first Gladiator).
But more importantly, the audience reaction on PostTrak is only 77% positive, meaning a good portion of Gladiator II’s audience is walking away unsatisfied.
Audiences online are saying that “Gladiator Il contains all the spectacle, bloodshed, and adrenaline-pumping arena action you’d want from a Gladiator sequel, but the story lacks the original’s emotional heart and soul.“
The actor that people are walking away most impressed by isn’t the main hero, played by Paul Mescal, but instead Denzel Washington, who steals every scene with his commanding presence.
It’s worth noting that, compared to Russell Crowe, Paul Mescal is not an action-hero nor a movie star. He’s only been in smaller prestige films so far (All of Us Strangers, Aftersun), and all due respect, feels miscast here.
In all honesty, why wasn’t Pedro Pascal playing the main character?
Audiences seem to like or tolerate Gladiator 2, but they really love Wicked. Gladiator 2 has a cool cast and action but a weak story, while Wicked goes above and beyond to entertain everybody.
But while in America audiences are treating Wicked more as an event than Gladiator II, internationally, it’s a different story.
3. GLADIATOR II HAS BETTER INTERNATIONAL APPEAL
So far Gladiator II has been very successful overseas, with $166 million so far. This makes sense, as it’s the type of period-action film that transcends culture and language. You don’t need a serious background of Roman culture or history to enjoy this.
Meanwhile Wicked has stumbled overseas, with just $50 million its international opening weekend. It still could leg out from word of mouth, but this isn’t an great start.
For context as to why Wicked isn’t doing as well overseas, The Wizard of Oz from 1939 is a primarily American-language cultural touchstone, that’s mostly only big in America, Canada and England.
And the Wicked stage-show does have a somewhat big audience overseas in countries like South Korea, Japan, and the UK. But for all the other countries, the Wicked film has to essentially rely on the star power of Ariana Grande.
Thankfully Ariana is a huge pop star in Southeast Asia, so she may help this movie appeal to people outside of the fandom. Wicked has yet to open in countries like France, China, Germany and Japan.
4. BECAUSE OF ITS BUDGET AND UPCOMING “PART TWO”, WICKED WILL STILL BE A BIGGER MONEY MAKER
While Gladiator II is guaranteed to do better overseas, Wicked is likely to earn more money overall.
Given Wicked’s stronger domestic debut, as well as its stellar reviews and rave audience reactions, I’d argue Wicked is a lock for a nomination for Best Picture at the Oscars.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Wicked holds strong throughout the holiday season, plus has an Oscar Season bump between January to March.
For now I’m estimating a total of $350-400+ million domestically and $600-700 million worldwide for Wicked, which however you slice it, would be a pretty magical performance on its $150 million budget.
And this is just for Part 1! Wicked Part 2 is guaranteed to get a bump at the box office when it opens next year.
Gladiator II also has the potential to leg out over the holiday, in spite of its mixed word of mouth.
It’s currently the only blockbuster film this entire holiday season targeting older-men, aside from Kraven the Hunter on December 13.
The rush to see Gladiator II right away isn’t terribly strong, as many older moviegoers may decide to watch the sequel on its 4th, 5th or even 6th weekend.
Based on this opening and word-of-mouth, I’m predicting a total of $140-170 million domestically for Gladiator II, and between $450-550 million worldwide.
But while a finish near $450-550 million worldwide may seem good at first, Gladiator II‘s budget is reportedly $250 million, not including an estimated $100+ million for advertising. Seriously, were they expecting the film to earn a billion dollars?
Gladiator II‘s overly expensive budget is another reason why Wicked will be more profitable, since it only cost $150 million.
But the biggest legitimate threat that will come in the way of these films is: how much of a absolute monster will Moana 2 be next weekend? Well, get ready…
NEXT WEEKEND: A “MOANAPOCALYPSE”
Next weekend, Hollywood industry experts are expecting Thanksgiving to be a “Moana-pocalypse”.
Pre-sales for Moana 2 have simply been ridiculous, with many anticipating it to have a $200+ million 5-day opening in the U.S. The first Moana earned $82 million over 5-days in 2016.
An opening of this scale would set Moana 2 up to be a juggernaut of a blockbuster to watch over the rest of the holiday season, and will control all the big movie screens for the next several weeks. So watch out, Wicked and Gladiator II!
A legitimate problem that may arise from Moana 2 is the traffic jam of movie screens, since theaters can only play so many films at a time.
Moana 2 is taking nearly all the Premium Large Format Dolby and IMAX screens away from Wicked and Gladiator II, starting Tuesday night.
Even if Wicked and Gladiator potentially drop big because of Moana 2, there’s a scenario where all three of these films can coexist and thrive.
Moana 2 could easily primarily play as the big film to see over holiday for families and kids, while Wicked and Gladiator II could continue to play to older adults.
Even if Moana 2 makes most of the money, there does seem to be something for everybody with these three films, which may lead to a record-breaking Thanksgiving holiday at the box office.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
Leave a note in the comments below if there’s a film you’re interested in seeing or or a story you’re interested in talking about.
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