It’s been a year and a half since my last post, back when 2024 Thanksgiving box office shattered box office records, and signaled a full theatrical recovery for the industry.
Now in March 2026, I’ve returned to ask a similar simple question:
Are movies (and the studios behind them) still trending in the right direction?
Let’s get into the biggest story of the weekend.
PROJECT HAIL MARY DELIVERS A MAJOR BREAKOUT DEBUT FOR AMAZON MGM
Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary opened to a stellar $80 million U.S. debut, far exceeding industry projections in the $60–65 million range.
This is also so far the biggest opening of the year, for any Hollywood movie.
This marks Amazon MGM’s biggest box office opening ever, beating Creed III’s $58 million debut in 2023.
For a studio still trying to prove itself theatrically, this is a major win.
And with Project Hail Mary’s big debut, this honestly feels like the summer movie season just started early.
With potential $80M+ openers like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Michael, and Devil Wears Prada 2 on deck, 2026 is heating up fast!
But, why is Project Hail Mary performing so well? See below for my 4 main reasons why:
REASON #1: THE BOOK IS MASSIVELY POPULAR
The film is based on an incredibly popular sci-fi book, from author Andy Weir (who also wrote The Martian) which sold over 10 million copies worldwide.
The story also has an easy-to-explain premise and pitch: an astronaut wakes up on a ship several lightyears from home, with no memory of his mission or how or why he’s meant to save Earth.
Similar to The Martian, while the story is unapologetically science-heavy, Project Hail Mary is quite successful in weaving together complex formulas and theories, alongside experiments.
The science comes across as super technical, yet understandable.
Both The Martian and Project Hail Mary are popular by existing as broadly appealing sci-fi, with a strong grounded hook.
REASON #2: PRESTIGE TALENT AND FILMMAKERS
The movie also had a great quality of talent working behind the camera.
The directors are Phil Lord & Chris Miller (who wrote/directed the 21 Jump Street films, Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs, The Lego Movie, and they wrote/ produced the SpiderVerse films).
They’re known for winning over audiences emotionally around the silliest ideas, while putting constant attention into a great visual style.
Plus the writer of Project Hail Mary, Drew Goddard, wrote the screenplay for The Martian, The Cabin In The Woods, and the underrated Bad Times At The El Royale.
As a writer, he is clearly skilled at telling gripping genre stories, around characters who go through Hell and back.
Lastly, the cinematographer of Project Hail Mary is Greig Fraser (he also was the Cinematographer for Dune 1 + 2, The Batman, and Rogue One).
Clearly he knows his way around a camera, for a big sci-fi/fantasy blockbuster.
So, with all this great behind-the-scenes talent, there was a lot of potential for Project Hail Mary to be an instant sci-fi classic. And so far, that seems to be the case.
REASON #3: THE FILM IS VERY SMART, AND CROWD-PLEASING
With great reviews and spectacular audience scores (95% on Rotten Tomatoes, 5-stars on PostTrak, and an A from Cinemascore), moviegoers seem to be falling in love with this film.
It’s telling how, even with an occasionally somber tone and the length of 2 hours and 36 minutes, this film is still crowd pleasing and broadly appealing.
In terms of demographics, 57% of the audience were men, and 43% were women.
The film was split pretty evenly in terms of ages (55% under the age of 35, 45% over 35), indicating the film is appealing to both audiences young and old.
After seeing the movie myself in IMAX 70mm on Friday night, I found it to be incredibly charming and entertaining, especially as a huge fan of the book.
The visuals include plenty of “never seen that before” space imagery, which looks amazing on IMAX.
If I had any criticisms, as a film it does feel a little long, plus similar to the book, the scenes set on Earth aren’t as compelling as the scenes set in space. But it still works.
I think the extent to which you’ll find yourself enthralled with the movie will likely depend upon how engrossed you are in the friendship, between Dr. Grace and (SPOILERS) his five-legged rock alien sidekick, Rocky.
And thus far, it seems like audiences are loving the relationship between Grace and Rocky.
REASON #4: RYAN GOSLING IS PREMIUM ADDED VALUE (FOR THE RIGHT PROJECT)
The films’ success also affirms that, while Ryan Gosling may not be the biggest-box-office draw (just take a look at his bombs, Blade Runner 2049 or The Fall Guy), he certainly can carry a movie.
Gosling can be a great added value element when paired with the right projects, like Barbie or La La Land.
He seems to be functioning as premium talent for a film like Project Hail Mary, providing plenty of charm and credibility for a film like this.
This success also gives a serious robust re-evalutaion on Gosling’s next big movie, Star Wars Starfighter, coming out next year, May 2027.
Gosling has enough appeal to both men and women, to the point where Starfighter could also be another all-quadrant sci-fi film, that brings in non-Star-Wars fans who may not otherwise be interested.
SO…. WHAT WILL PROJECT HAIL MARY END WITH?
While Project Hail Mary just had a great opening and superb word of mouth, it’s worth nothing that the film only has control on Premium-Large-Format / IMAX screens for just 1.5 weeks.
54% of its box office came from PLF/IMAX screens.
On Wednesday April 1, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opens, and is expected to earn anywhere between $180-220 million over it’s 5-day weekend.
While Mario is targeted more towards families, the loss of IMAX screens will likely slow some of Project Hail Mary’s momentum.
With that said, thanks to strong word of mouth, Project Hail Mary will likely have staying power as the adult-friendly blockbuster-of-choice for moviegoers, until Michael opens April 24.
I’m expecting Project Hail Mary to end with $250-300 million in the U.S., on par with Dune: Part Two, which earned $282 million. Worldwide, I’m expecting $500-600 million.
Project Hail Mary cost $190 million to make. The typical rule of thumb is a film needs to earn around 2.5x its budget to breakeven, after marketing and P&A costs. So, ~$500 million worldwide is the assumed break-even point.
Even if Project Hail Mary doesn’t approach the $630 million-grossing The Martian in 2015, it’s still pulling aspirational grosses for a non-franchise blockbuster.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the film becomes a big Best Picture Frontrunner by the year’s end, depending on how this year’s The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three perform.
Speaking of the rest of the year, is this success enough to turn its studio Amazon MGM around?
THE BIGGER QUESTION: IS THAT ENOUGH FOR AMAZON MGM TO HAVE A SUCCESSFUL 2026?
Project Hail Mary is arriving at a pivotal time for Amazon MGM, which has spent lavishly in its quest to become a major player in the movie business.
Nearly 4 years after acquiring MGM for $8.5 billion, Amazon is unveiling its first full theatrical slate, with 13 films on schedule over the span of 12 months.
The reality is that, if Project Hail Mary wasn’t here, Amazon MGM would be having a really bad 2026.
So far, the studio’s foray into theatrical has been uneven. Recent misfires have included over the past 6 months:
- Luca Guadagnino’s star-studded After The Hunt earned an awful $9 million worldwide, against an $80 million budget.
- The first lady documentary Melania generated $16 million, impressive for a documentary in 2026, but terrible against a $40 million budget.
- Chris Pratt’s AI-thriller Mercy bombs with just $54 million worldwide on a $60 million budget.
- Chris Hemsworth’s crime-thriller Crime 101 grossed only $67 million on a $90 million budget.
To be fair, they have had a couple of minor hits (in 2023 Creed III earned $270 million on a $75 million budget, and in 2024 The Beekeeper earned $162 million on a $40 million budget).
But if Amazon MGM continues to be seen as a successful studio, they’re going to have to make more movies that make their budgets back.
And the rest of their 2026 doesn’t look so great, either. Their big summer blockbuster is the upcoming $200 million Masters Of The Universe reboot on June 5, starring Gillian Galitzine as He-Man (Okay!) and Jared Leto as Skeletor (Yikes!).
Given this is a risky reboot of a (not-that-popular) 40-year-old property, the industry is expecting the film to also be a pretty hefty bomb. I’d be surprised if it earned $200 million worldwide.
Their only arguable sure-fire success for the rest of 2026 is their adaptation of the Colleen Hoover book Verity, starring Anne Hathaway and Josh Hartnett.
Given this is one of Colleen Hoover’s most popular books (over 3 million copies sold), plus the strong cast, Verity is almost guaranteed to be a solid hit this Fall.
Plus they have a would-be-Oscar-contender with I Play Rocky, about the making of the first Rocky movie in 1976. This film at least has the popular Rocky IP to fall back on.
But who knows, do people care anymore about Rocky in the abstract?
FINAL TAKEAWAY
While their future still looks a bit Rocky (no pun intended), with Project Hail Mary, Amazon MGM can at least prove that it can deliver solid, reliable theatrical returns for “this kind of film.”
And by “this kind of film,” I mean big-budget, original-feeling sci-fi adaptations: more in line with modern successes like 2018’s Ready Player One ($575M worldwide) and The Meg ($530M worldwide), rather than franchise-driven tentpoles.
If nothing else, Project Hail Mary feels like a strong proof of concept, and potentially a blueprint, for what Amazon MGM can consistently bring to theaters as a studio moving forward.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What upcoming films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
I’m looking forward to writing again in this column soon in April.
Zan Hollywood Box Office - Analysis Site 
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