The King of Pop is back, and audiences showed up in full force.
Michael, the long-awaited Michael Jackson biopic, opened to a massive $97M domestic debut and $217M worldwide.
That’s not just an incredible opening, it’s a record setter:
It’s the biggest debut ever for a:
- Musical biopic (passing Straight Outta Compton, which opened to $60 million in 2015).
- Traditional biopic (passing American Sniper, which opened to $89 million in 2015)
- Post-COVID movie for the Lionsgate studio (passing John Wick Chapter 4, which opened to $73 million in 2023)
Overall, this is a fantastic start to the summer movie season, and it’s not just happening in a vacuum.
There’s multiple Hollywood films right on deck primed for success at the box office.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 is tracking for a $80-100 million opening next weekend on May 1.
Mortal Kombat 2 is targeting a $50 million debut the weekend after on May 8.
The Mandalorian And Grogu is eyeing a $100 million launch over the holiday weekend on May 22.
Summer 2026 is officially off to a hot start.
But the real questions I want to discuss are, what are the 3 lessons that Michael’s success proves, and can the film’s success somehow be replicated?
LESSON #1: MICHAEL JACKSON IS A MOVIE STAR, AND THE CASTING ADDED VALUE
While this debut for Michael is a spectacular result, it shouldn’t be a surprise.
Michael Jackson was, at his peak, perhaps the most famous artist on the planet.
He was a child prodigy, a cultural icon, a controversial figure, and he left a mythical legacy after his death.
A biopic about his life was inevitable.
Plus, casting Jaafar Jackson (Michael’s real-life nephew) was a smart commercial move.
While Jafaar Jackson is not exactly a star, having the late singer played by his own nephew to pantomime perfection (not a criticism, that’s the assignment) provided authenticity and curiosity to his performance.
It’s almost as if you were actually watching Michael himself perform on stage.
LESSON #2: MAKE A FILM THAT’S FUN FOR GENERAL AUDIENCES AND FANS
Director Antoine Fuqua (as well as producer Graham King & screenwriter John Logan) did the job in making a “fun for audiences and fans” biopic of Michael Jackson.
I saw the film myself last week, and while the musical numbers are really special to watch, it’s not really trying to dissect Michael as a person.
The story lacks depth and characterization, as Michael himself feels like a Saint with almost no character flaws.
Most of the film’s conflict centers around Michael’s relationship with his abusive father and manager, Joe Jackson.
All the other supporting characters, such as Michael’s siblings, don’t have any defining personalities.
The end result is a shallow film, but entertaining celebration of Michael Jackson’s initial (1966-1988) musical hits, with none of the controversial elements that followed.
That last part is important…
LESSON #3: AUDIENCES DON’T WANT TO SEE THE DARKER ELEMENTS OF MICHAEL JACKSON’S LIFE
Interesting fact, the producers filmed an entire 3rd act finale which followed the controversies and allegations with Michael in the 1990s, before the Jackson family lawyers informed the filmmakers they’d broken their nondisclosure agreement!
So poof! 3rd act of the movie is out. Add a month of reshoots.
And now the movie simply ends with a title card, “Michael’s Journey Will Continue….”
Critics have overly disliked the film, giving Michael a 38% score on Rotten Tomatoes, saying that the film omits almost all of the darker elements of Michael’s life.
As a moviegoer do you want (A) a movie where you only experience the artists’ greatest hits, or (B) a movie where you get to understand the artist more as a person, flaws and all?
Since the film has a A- from CinemaScore and a 97% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes it seems clear moviegoers wanted option A: Michael’s greatest hits.
Even critics have also noted that, if you just want a safe, well-acted IMAX-worthy recreation of Michael’s musical concert performances, you’ll at least get that.
In the end, Michael Jackson is an artist where a majority of his fans just want to see a celebration of his greatest hits.
THE “MARIO EFFECT” — FOR MUSIC BIOPICS
In a weird way, Michael functions similarly to the most recent Mario Galaxy movie.
Their commercial success is less about creative storytelling, and more about delivering exactly what fans already love.
Both Michael and Mario are films primarily intended for the Leo DiCaprio pointing meme: designed mainly for fans to watch and point at their favorite things on screen.
For many fans, that feeling is enough.
NOW THE BIG QUESTION… LEGS! (NO PUN INTENDED)
Let’s start with comparing the film to a other pop-rock biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, also produced by Michael producer Graham King.
Bohemian Rhapsody ended in 2018 with $904 million worldwide, off a $122 million global debut.
With a $200 million budget (which was inflated due to the reshoots the film had to go through), Lionsgate has shared that Michael needs to earn $700 million worldwide to justify a sequel.
I’m expecting an ending-total near $750-900 million worldwide, depending on how front loaded it plays with other adult films this summer.
If it lands in that range, it’s a major win.
SO YES, A SEQUEL MAY BE JUSTIFIED, BUT SHOULD IT GET MADE?
This is where things get super tricky.
A Michael 2 would likely cover:
- The 1990s Neverland Ranch era
- The controversies
- The legal battles
And that’s… a very different movie.
Ignoring the questionable subject matter (who knows if audiences actually want to follow this up with a full legal drama, and sexual abuse allegations), what’s even left to show in terms of Michael’s music?
There’s Black Or White, Remember The Time, and HIStory, but these songs are not as musically interesting or as popular with fans.
If a sequel to Michael ever gets made, I expect a steep drop-off in interest and excitement among fans.
If Michael Part 1 is: “Come celebrate Michael Jackson”, then Part 2 becomes: “Now let’s see our hero get tarnished”
That’s a much tougher sell. It might be best just to call it a day, and stick to the one movie that makes us feel happy.
MUSICAL BIOPIC TAKEAWAY
While its sequel’s commercial prospects are questionable, Michael’s success proves something very clear:
If you have an adored musical artist, it’s okay to focus on the performance and not go for complexity or nuance.
Audiences really want to see a celebratory musical recreation, of their favorite performer at their peak.
And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about?
I’m looking forward to writing again in this column later as the summer movie season continues.
Zan Hollywood Box Office - Analysis Site 
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