Zan Hollywood Box Office – Analysis Site

Films, Hollywood Analysis, and the Box Office! A film blog trying to be seen…

  • “Michael” Moonwalks to $97M Opening: A Record-Breaking Hit, But What Happens Next?

    The King of Pop is back, and audiences showed up in full force.

    Michael, the long-awaited Michael Jackson biopic, opened to a massive $97M domestic debut and $219M worldwide.

    That’s not just an incredible opening, it’s a record setter:

    It’s the biggest debut ever for a:

    • Musical biopic (passing Straight Outta Compton, which opened to $60 million in 2015).
    • Traditional biopic (passing American Sniper, which opened to $89 million in 2015)
    • Post-COVID movie for the Lionsgate studio (passing John Wick Chapter 4, which opened to $73 million in 2023)

    Overall, this is a fantastic start to the summer movie season, and it’s not just happening in a vacuum.

    There’s multiple Hollywood films right on deck primed for success at the box office. 

    The Devil Wears Prada 2 is tracking for a $80-100 million opening next weekend on May 1.

    Mortal Kombat 2 is targeting a $50 million debut the weekend after on May 8.

    The Mandalorian And Grogu is eyeing a $100 million launch over the holiday weekend on May 22. 

    Summer 2026 is officially off to a hot start.

    But the real questions I want to discuss are, what are the 3 lessons that Michael’s success proves, and can the film’s success somehow be replicated? 

    LESSON #1: MICHAEL JACKSON IS A MOVIE STAR, AND THE CASTING ADDED VALUE

    While this debut for Michael is a spectacular result, it shouldn’t be a surprise. 

    Michael Jackson was, at his peak, perhaps the most famous artist on the planet.

    He was a child prodigy, a cultural icon, a controversial figure, and he left a mythical legacy after his death. 

    A biopic about his life was inevitable.

    Plus, casting Jaafar Jackson (Michael’s real-life nephew) was a smart commercial move.

    While Jafaar Jackson is not exactly a star, having the late singer played by his own nephew to pantomime perfection (not a criticism, that’s the assignment) provided authenticity and curiosity to his performance.

    It’s almost as if you were actually watching Michael himself perform on stage.

    LESSON #2: MAKE A FILM THAT’S FUN FOR GENERAL AUDIENCES AND FANS

    Director Antoine Fuqua (as well as producer Graham King & screenwriter John Logan) did the job in making a “fun for audiences and fans” biopic of Michael Jackson.

    I saw the film myself last week, and while the musical numbers are really special to watch, it’s not really trying to dissect Michael as a person.

    The story lacks depth and characterization, as Michael himself feels like a Saint with almost no character flaws. 

    Most of the film’s conflict centers around Michael’s relationship with his abusive father and manager, Joe Jackson.

    All the other supporting characters, such as Michael’s siblings, don’t have any defining personalities.

    The end result is a shallow film, but entertaining celebration of Michael Jackson’s initial (1966-1988) musical hits, with none of the controversial elements that followed. 

    That last part is important…

    LESSON #3: AUDIENCES DON’T WANT TO SEE THE DARKER ELEMENTS OF MICHAEL JACKSON’S LIFE

    Interesting fact, the producers filmed an entire 3rd act finale which followed the controversies and allegations with Michael in the 1990s, before the Jackson family lawyers informed the filmmakers they’d broken their nondisclosure agreement!

    So poof! 3rd act of the movie is out. Add a month of reshoots.

    And now the movie simply ends with a title card, “Michael’s Journey Will Continue….”

    Critics have overly disliked the film, giving Michael a 38% score on Rotten Tomatoes, saying that the film omits almost all of the darker elements of Michael’s life.

    As a moviegoer do you want (A) a movie where you only experience the artists’ greatest hits, or (B) a movie where you get to understand the artist more as a person, flaws and all?

    Since the film has a A- from CinemaScore and a 97% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes it seems clear moviegoers wanted option A: Michael’s greatest hits.

    Even critics have also noted that, if you just want a safe, well-acted IMAX-worthy recreation of Michael’s musical concert performances, you’ll at least get that. 

    In the end, Michael Jackson is an artist where a majority of his fans just want to see a celebration of his greatest hits.

    THE “MARIO EFFECT” — FOR MUSIC BIOPICS

    In a weird way, Michael functions similarly to the most recent Mario Galaxy movie.

    Their commercial success is less about creative storytelling, and more about delivering exactly what fans already love.

    Both Michael and Mario are films primarily intended for the Leo DiCaprio pointing meme: designed mainly for fans to watch and point at their favorite things on screen.

    For many fans, that feeling is enough.

    NOW THE BIG QUESTION… LEGS! (NO PUN INTENDED)

    Let’s start with comparing the film to a other pop-rock biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, also produced by Michael producer Graham King.

    Bohemian Rhapsody ended in 2018 with $904 million worldwide, off a $122 million global debut.

    With a $200 million budget (which was inflated due to the reshoots the film had to go through), Lionsgate has shared that Michael needs to earn $700 million worldwide to justify a sequel.

    I’m expecting an ending-total near $750-900 million worldwide, depending on how front loaded it plays with other adult films this summer.

    If it lands in that range, it’s a major win.

    SO YES, A SEQUEL MAY BE JUSTIFIED, BUT SHOULD IT GET MADE?

    This is where things get super tricky.

    A Michael 2 would likely cover:

    • The 1990s Neverland Ranch era
    • The controversies
    • The legal battles

    And that’s… a very different movie.

    Ignoring the questionable subject matter (who knows if audiences actually want to follow this up with a full legal drama, and sexual abuse allegations), what’s even left to show in terms of Michael’s music? 

    There’s Black Or White, Remember The Time, and HIStory, but these songs are not as musically interesting or as popular with fans.

    If a sequel to Michael ever gets made, I expect a steep drop-off in interest and excitement among fans. 

    If Michael Part 1 is: “Come celebrate Michael Jackson”, then Part 2 becomes: “Now let’s see our hero get tarnished”

    That’s a much tougher sell. It might be best just to call it a day, and stick to the one movie that makes us feel happy.

    MUSICAL BIOPIC TAKEAWAY

    While its sequel’s commercial prospects are questionable, Michael’s success proves something very clear:

    If you have an adored musical artist, and youwant to make a hit-movie, it’s okay to focus on the performance and not go for complexity or nuance.

    Audiences really want to see celebratory musical recreations, of their favorite performer at their peak.

    And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about? 

    I’m looking forward to writing again in this column later as the summer movie season continues.

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  • Weekend Box Office (7/10/22) Thor opens with Solid opening weekend, but Lackluster Word of Mouth – Cause for Concern?

    Most franchises would be thrilled to have a comedy-sequel earn mixed-positive reviews, and open 17% bigger than it’s predecessor. But with mixed critical and audience reactions, why did the film not earn the positivity that was expected?

    This new Thor movie was my most anticipated sequel of the summer, given how much the last film Thor: Ragnarok was such a fun comic book blockbuster, and showed there was still life to find in this franchise. That film opened with $123 million in 2017, with fans loving it in context of how its story took place in preparation before the new Avengers. 

    Now it’s 2022, and Thor 4 Love and Thunder opened to $143 million this past weekend, a bit below the optimistic projections from Disney (expecting $150-170 million), but still, a 17% higher debut than Ragnarok is fine.

    It’s the third biggest opening of the year, and for what is considered ”just” a Thor sequel, with little feeling of “you gotta see this immediately”, Love and Thunder opened about in line with what it expected to this weekend.  

    However, there are possible signs of peril going on. The film pulled lousy reviews for a Marvel comedy (69% Rotten Tomatoes) but it’s the weak audience reactions (B+ CinemaScore) that scare me. 

    That’s one of the worst audience reactions for a MCU movie. It’s one thing when a polarizing space odyssey like Eternals earns a B, or a horror fantasy like Doctor Strange 2 earns a B+, as those genres were seen as somewhat “experiments” for Marvel. But Thor is a “generic” crowd pleasing superhero comedy, so its weak reaction is a bad sign. 

    It’s been years after the “Infinity Saga” of Marvel ended with Avengers: Endgame in 2019, where we used to grade each film on a curve as part of a grander achievement in storytelling. Now in 2022 as the MCU begins to lack focus or direction with each project in an ongoing narrative, are audiences beginning to become harsher and more discerning? 

    Is it due to the director Taika Waititi’s absurdist sense of humor? Maybe not every joke is landing.

    Is Marvel overextending itself in pumping out too many movies and Disney+ series? Do we blame the pandemic feature production rush here? 2022 alone has 4 Marvel movies and 5 Disney+ shows.

    Thor: Love and Thunder is another wake-up call to the MCU development department. If films become too cookie-cutter, ticket sales will decline.

    PostTrak, which tracks general audiences seeing the film, has Thor at 3 1/2 stars with a 77% positive, not far from Eternals’ 75%. Kids are ONLY making up 4% of the audience, which is terribly small, given the film’s narrative about saving Asgard’s children. 

    See the proportion of ages and genders as % of the audience:

    Men Over age 25Women Over age 25 Men Under age 25Women Under age 25
    33% 25% 25% 17%

    The most encouraging score for Thor: Love and Thunder is coming from women over 25 at 82% positive, who could be really connecting to Jane Foster’s Cancer storyline and arc in this movie.

    On the bright side, 53% of those who saw Thor: Love and Thunder bought their tickets the day they saw the movie. To me that indicates a lot of people are seeing the movie when they can, with high “walk-up” business and legs for the rest of summer. The film also earned stellar business overseas, earning $302 million Worldwide.

    I’m still expecting a BIG significant 2nd-weekend-drop next week (-65% or more), than it should level out throughout July and August, given the lack of *big* family friendly competition besides DC’s Super Pets until Black Adam in October. 

    Either way, theater owners aren’t complaining, as the Box Office overall has reached pre-pandemic levels! The overall marketplace is around $236 Million, above the same post-4th-of-July weekend in 2019 with $183 million where SpiderMan far From Home was #1. But it’s not just superhero movies helping theaters, thanks to 3 other movies also grossing above $10 million this weekend.

    Minions: Rise of Gru earned another $45.5 million (-57%), with $210 million so far, and the potential to end with $325-335 million in the U.S. On an $80 million budget, this Minions sequel / Despicable Me prequel is already a hit at $400 million Worldwide, even it’s still performing better in America than overseas.

    The #GentleMinions trend likely helped last weekend, and is still assisting the generational nostalgia present here. Expecting Despicable Me 4 in 2024. 

    Top Gun: Maverick is nearing $1.2 billion worldwide, as the $170-million-budgeted legacy Sequel, earned another $15.5 million in its 7th weekend, -40%, the first “normal” drop in its entire run. 

    Still with another $15 million, that’s the third biggest 7th weekend ever behind Titanic ($26 million) and Avatar ($31 million). Still expecting to end with over $700 million in the U.S. Wow!

    Elvis earned another $11 million (-40%) in weekend three for a $91.122 million 17-day cume. With word that the Baz Luhrmann-directed rock-n-roll biopic will NOT be heading to HBO Max after 45 days, it should continue to hold along Top Gun for the rest of summer as “event movies for older adults”.

    This is a great win for Warner Brothers, whose Elvis could end with around $130-140 million domestic, and maybe some Oscar nominations.

    Universal’s Jurassic World Dominion earned $8.41 million (-49%) with a  $350 million 31-day U.S. cume. The $185-million-budgeted Dino finale will arrive on “rent it for $20” PVOD this coming Thursday. Still, history shows that shouldn’t hurt the theatrical run much. 

    We’re still looking at an over/under $370 million domestic end, and a global total of over/under $925 million.

    Universal and Blumhouse’s The Black Phone earned $7.66 million (-37%) for a terrific $62 million domestic and $99 million worldwide so far. This one might drop on PVOD this coming Thursday, but the $19-million-budgeted crowd-pleaser has had solid legs for an original, R-rated thriller. 

    Walt Disney’s Lightyear earned $2.9 million (-55%) in weekend four for a miserable $112.2 million domestic and $202 million global cume. Those who blame its LGBT content should look at those Thor 4 and Jurassic World 3 grosses. The sci-fi actioner/Toy Story spinoff should remain the lowest Pixar grosser ever.

    At this point, Disney is now becoming even more financially reliant on Marvel / Avatar / Star Wars projects, but that’s a conversation for another day.

  • Weekend Box Office (7/4/22) It’s Official! COVID may no longer be a problem for moviegoers

    Hollywood has been worried and biting their lip since COVID about if older adults (55+), and especially kids and families, will return to theaters with the pandemic, especially given the availability of streaming. And now, we’ve just had Top Gun 2, and Minions 2 of all movies, break box office records over Memorial Day and Independence Day, and will likely become the two BIGGEST movies of the summer. Take that, streaming!

    Minions 2: A lesson in social media marketing

    Starting with the raw numbers, #1 was Minions: Rise of Gru, earning $107 million over the 3-Day weekend. Again, the biggest Independence Day opening weekend ever. (beating Transformers 3’s $97 million opening in 2011) And Hollywood was worried this franchise might be getting stale… Throw in positive reviews (71% Rotten Tomatoes) and solid word of mouth (“A” grade from CinemaScore), the film may likely cross a billion after this.

    Has the heart simply grown fonder for these little yellow minions? Or is there generational nostalgia for the Despicable Me franchise, for kids who grew up on it and now are adults? I’m willing to say that’s what happened, with young men dressing up in business suits and posting themselves on TikTok, while making memes and posting about how important the film is. 

    Social Media Trends and games like this will likely be discussed for years to come, compared to another memed about movie Morbius, also joked about earlier this year on social media as the beginning of “summer of Morbius.” Hell Sony even re-released the movie earlier in June in the hopes those jokes would translate to more ticket sales. It didn’t, as that film then bombed again. 

    The key difference here is the ironic Minions memes were joked about and made out of love, while it seemed Morbius was joked out of spite. Lessons learned from social media games…

    Either way, this opening is a huge win for Universal’s marketing team, Illumination Animation’s brand, and is encouraging for upcoming animated films at the box office. 

    Top Gun 2: the film that just won’t stop flying in $

    It’s impossible to predict the legs of Top Gun Maverick, as every optimistic prediction I’ve had for it at the box office just keeps getting topped. It may end up being the biggest movie of the YEAR (give or take Black Panther 2 or Avatar 2), but it’s become a cultural phenomenon, on par with a James Cameron movie, having remarkably small drops throughout the month of June and now July. It’s… just not stopping.

    Another $25.8 million -14% from last week, with $570 million so far and $1.1 billion worldwide. A phenomenal drop over the 4th of July holiday, for what is easily Cruise’s biggest movie ever. What a win for the star/filmmaker/producer.

    It should pass Titanic eventually ($659 million) to become Paramount’s biggest hit ever in the U.S. too, and might be nominated for a few Oscars when all is done. Who knows how high this Tom Cruise jet will keep flying…. Maybe $700?

    #3 Elvis had a nice holiday hold, again encouraging for older audiences returning to movie theaters. The well reviewed (78% on Rotten Tomatoes) and received by audiences (A- CinemaScore) earned another $19 Million over the weekend, and may end around $110-120 million in the U.S. 

    It cost $85 Million to produce, and will likely earn above Rocketman’s $195 Million worldwide finish. It’s a hit for Warner Brothers, and may even earn Austin Butler an Oscar.

    #4 Jurassic World: Dominion (the finale?) had a healthy drop, earning another $15.7 million (-41%) for $331 million so far. It’ll probably end under $1 Billion (blame the fact it earned less money in China, not the word of mouth, audiences thought this movie was sufficiently fine [A- CinemaScore]), so a finish in the $950~ million range is still pretty good, and over 4x it’s budget. Expect another Jurassic movie from Universal down the road, although probably disconnected from this trilogy.

    #5 The crowd pleasing horror-chiller The Black Phone earned $12 over the holiday (-48%), for $50 million so far in the U.S. That’s a big win for Director Scott Derrickson and Universal Studios/BlumHouse, and a reminder how thrillers like this shouldn’t go straight to streaming.


    #6 Speaking of lessons that should be learned from not going straight to streaming, Lightyear, the origin story around the toy who can’t fly, had another ugly fall this weekend, -64% for $6.6 million, with “only” $190 million worldwide. The worst theatrical bomb in Pixar Animation history.

    Yeah, the anticipation of its Disney+ release, and the poor concept killed this. Disney+ received the better, more interesting Pixar flicks (Soul, Luca, Turning Red) to increase streaming subscriptions. But conditioning families to stream animated tentpoles for FREE was a massive long-term mistake, and leads me concerned for their upcoming Strange World sci-fi adventure this Thanksgiving.


    It’s ironic how much Disney and Hollywood in general have emphasized streaming as a priority since COVID began. And now this Summer, the films that were instead delayed and did NOT go to streaming, are soaring to infinity and beyond at the box office. And save for Marvel and likely Avatar, Disney is the one studio that hasn’t yet recovered, partially because they’ve emphasized streaming releases first.
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  • Intro

    Nice to meet everyone on here! My name is Zander Levy, and for the last decade or so I’ve enjoyed writing and the box office, films and their financial success, and what it takes for a studio to succeed! This is my Film Blog, attempting to be thought-provoking.

    As I’m typing this it’s 2022, and over the summer we’ve had SEVERAL big blockbusters over-performing, meeting expectations, and working in saving movie theaters! I think we’re at the point where it’s safe to say COVID doesn’t have much of an effect anymore, at least for the big movies. Keep reading to hear my thoughts Essays, Reviews, Commentary, and original analysis!