Zan Hollywood Box Office – Analysis Site

Films, Hollywood Analysis, and the Box Office! A film blog trying to be seen…

  • The Odyssey Conquers The Box Office: How Christopher Nolan Turned a 2,800-Year-Old Story Into A Smash Hit

    Turns out, summer moviegoers didn’t need another superhero film.

    Or another animated sequel.

    Or another established franchise.

    What instead got moviegoers to really buy tickets was a 2,800-year-old Greek epic.

    Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey opened to a spectacular $124 million in the U.S., crushing industry expectations of $70–80 million.

    Worldwide the film opened to $264 million, which is the highest global debut EVER for a non-franchise live-action film, beating Avatar’s debut of $242 million in 2009.

    That’s also Nolan’s biggest opening ever, outside of The Dark Knight series, and one of the biggest box office successes of the year.

    More importantly, after a summer filled with underperforming blockbuster tentpoles (Mandalorian & Grogu, Masters of the Universe, Supergirl, Moana), Hollywood finally has another genuine hit on their hands this summer.

    So why did The Odyssey work so well?

    Here are 3 thoughts:

    1. OLD STORIES CAN STILL FEEL BRAND NEW

    It’s easy to forget that The Odyssey isn’t just another book adaptation.

    It’s one of the oldest surviving stories in human history.

    Written by Homer around 700 BCE, Homer’s epic The Odyssey follows the hero Odysseus on a 10-year journey to get home. 

    The story has remained relevant across countless generations inspiring everything from fantasy adventures, to modern science fiction.

    Most people encounter the story at some point in school.

    Others know it through adaptations.

    My personal favorite was the Coen Brothers’ O Brother, Where Art Thou? a loose adaptation set in 1930s Mississippi with comedic characters and great music.

    But a film adaptation of The Odyssey in its full epic glory, yet reachable to modern audiences, is the “NEW” creation Nolan’s offering to audiences.

    I saw the film over the weekend, and it absolutely delivers.

    The film satisfies longtime fans of Homer’s epic, while still functioning as a massive summer action spectacle for general audiences.

    And rather than focus on the intervention with Gods that was more part of the plot in the original poem, Nolan shows us a timely message: when people abandon trust, hospitality, and shared moral obligations in pursuit of power (e.g. use a Trojan Horse to gain access to destroy), they set themselves and future generations up for decline.

    That message makes the film feel surprisingly relevant to today.

    2. CHRISTOPHER NOLAN HAS BECOME HIS OWN FRANCHISE

    At this point, Christopher Nolan isn’t simply a director. He’s an event.

    Coming off the success of Oppenheimer, audiences were already eager to see whatever he made next.

    And Nolan rewarded that trust, with The Odyssey outperforming Oppenheimer’s debut of $82 million in 2023. 

    With this film, Nolan assembled one of the most impressive ensemble casts in years:

    • Matt Damon
    • Anne Hathaway
    • Tom Holland
    • Zendaya
    • Robert Pattinson
    • Lupita Nyong’o
    • Charlize Theron
    • Jon Bernthal

    The cast also made this feel like must-see cinema.

    51% of the audience said they came because “it’s a Christopher Nolan” movie.

    That’s an incredibly rare level of brand equity for any filmmaker.

    The film’s genre almost doesn’t even matter.

    Nolan’s done:

    • Sci-fi (Interstellar)
    • War (Dunkirk)
    • Superhero (The Dark Knight)
    • Historical drama (Oppenheimer)
    • Ancient mythology (The Odyssey)

    If Nolan directs it, audiences will likely trust that it’ll be worth seeing in theaters.

    3. PREMIUM THEATRICAL EXPERIENCES STILL MATTER

    A huge part of the marketing centered around the fact that the ENTIRE film (so every scene) was shot with IMAX 70mm cameras.

    That’s a first in Hollywood history! And that strategy clearly paid off.

    I’d wager the average moviegoer doesn’t really understand why IMAX 70mm is worth it. But what they do get is that the film’s visuals will be amazing – so amazing that you shouldn’t wait to see it on your small screen, but head to the theaters to see it in all its visual glory.

    Only 41 theaters worldwide are capable of showing the film in IMAX 70mm, yet those locations accounted for roughly 5% of the film’s opening-night gross. 

    Some IMAX 70mm theaters (including Universal City in Los Angeles & Lincoln Square in New York), have been running the film 24 hours a day, with sold-out screenings at 2 a.m. and even 6 a.m.!! That’s wild!

    Imagine watching The Odyssey, then exiting the theater right as the sun comes up.

    Even more impressive, 58% of the film’s opening-night ticket sales came from Premium Large Format screens (IMAX, 70mm, Dolby Cinema, etc.). 

    For comparison, most major blockbusters typically generate around 40–45% of their opening-night business from premium formats.

    But by shooting the entire film in IMAX 70mm, Nolan gave audiences something they simply couldn’t replicate at home.

    To summarize, even an ancient story can be gripping, if told in the right way. And a Nolan movie now comes with such a stamp of approval, people will go see it because they know it will be good. That, and the knowledge that this spectacle will be even better on the big screen, all contributed into making The Odyssey not just another summer release, but one of the year’s biggest theatrical events.

    So, just how far can it go?

    WHAT’S NEXT? HOW FAR WILL THE ODYSSEY GO?

    With outstanding reviews and word of mouth (95% critics score form Rotten Tomatoes, plus an A from CinemaScore), I’m expecting The Odyssey to have massive staying power for the rest of the summer.

    The biggest obstacle ahead is Spider-Man: Brand New Day, arriving 7/31 in two weeks, with what should be a $200-250+ million opening.

    Ironically, Spider-Man may actually help The Odyssey.

    Tom Holland, Zendaya, and Jon Bernthal all star prominently in both films, meaning every interview promoting one movie naturally reminds audiences about the other.

    After Spider-Man, the release calendar becomes much lighter.

    Outside of Warner Bros.’ smaller dinosaur thriller The End of Oak Street, there isn’t another major event film threatening its adult audience.

    I’m expecting an ending total of $400-475+ million domestically, and $1-1.2+ Billion worldwide for The Odyssey once it’s done. 

    That would make The Odyssey one of the year’s biggest hits, as well as one of the highest-grossing R-rated films ever made.

    FINAL TAKEAWAY

    Christopher Nolan has reached a place very few filmmakers ever go.

    He no longer needs superheroes, like Batman, or even established franchises.

    He can take one of humanity’s oldest stories, spend hundreds of millions bringing it to life, and convince audiences it’s the biggest event movie of the summer.

    That’s an extraordinary achievement.

    And perhaps the biggest lesson from The Odyssey isn’t about mythology at all.

    It’s about trust.

    Audiences at this point trust Christopher Nolan enough to follow him anywhere. It’ll be exciting to see what story he tells next.

    And that’s it for this weekend’s box office! Have you seen The Odyssey yet? If so, what did you think of it, and why do you think it’s doing so well at the box office?

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  • Weekend Box Office (7/17/22) Thor has pretty terrible second weekend drop (for Marvel), are Disney+ and fan fatigue to blame? Meanwhile Crawdads sings to an excellent debut

    Note: I admittedly had too many headlines to choose from this weekend (Thor crashes down to earth, Thor shows Marvel isn’t worthy anymore, Thor shows not all gods are immortal), so don’t begrudge me for not being edgy with my opening headline.

    Thor: Love and Thunder is again the top movie at the U.S. box office, earning another $46 million, dropping a “really bad” -68% from last weeks opening. While that’s the worst second weekend drop ever for a Marvel-Cinematic-Universe movie, it’s still earned $233 million for its first 10 days in theaters. That’s solid by most rational standards, but not good for Marvel. 

    How bad is this? Well, Marvel movies that open in mid-July tend to crash in their second weekends. Ant-Man and the Wasp, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Black Widow all took drops between 61% to 67% in their second weekends.

    But Ant-Man 2 and Homecoming both recovered, and earned around 1.6x their first respective 10-day totals. Both were seen as hits. Black Widow (which had Disney+ cut into its box office) did not recover as well, only making 1.4x its first 10 days. That’s a difference of nearly $50 million.

    With bad reviews and audience reactions (only a B+ CinemaScore and 3.5 stars on PostTrak), plus anticipation for Thor 4 streaming for free on Disney+, the film may have legs closer to Black Widow, or the much disliked Eternals last November.

    That could mean an ending total of $315-$330 in the U.S. box office, on par with Thor 3 in 2017, despite this film opening bigger.

    I’m concerned how much of a factor Disney+ will be on this film’s longevity. Maybe only the hardcore Marvel fans are showing up, while the casual fans are waiting until the movie is streaming free on Disney+.

    Or, is fan fatigue happening, by this being the 29th movie in this saga? With over 4 movies and 5 Disney+ shows a year, it’s tough to know which projects moving forward are crucial to watch to understand the ongoing Marvel narrative. In the end, these are self-inflicted problems caused by Disney. 

    It helps there’s basically nothing left playing in theaters as far as “superheroic fun for families”, beyond the animated DC League of Super-Pets on July 29 and The Rock’s Black Adam on October 21.

    Because of that, Thor 4 could have longer legs throughout August and September.

    I also wrote HERE about how the film’s mixed word of mouth is similar to 1997’s Batman 4: Batman and Robin. We’ve been down this road before.

    I could be over-thinking how audiences are responding. Thor 4 has already passed $500 million worldwide, and should likely top the last Thor film’s worldwide 2017 total (without China and Russia) of $715 million. 

    This could simply be another well-received “It’s entertaining, whatever” Marvel sequel, that will only perform a little better financially than Thor 3. They can’t all be Spider-Man: No Way Home.

    Compare this to Top Gun Maverick, which has had no date planned for streaming / Video-On-Demand, and has been doing great with audiences all summer long.

    Top Gun Maverick earned another $12 million (-23%) in its’ 8th-weekend, for $617.9 million in the U.S. and $1.236 billion so far, the biggest movie of the year. Easily one of the most impressive box office runs in my lifetime.

    As for the rest of the box office, Minions 2: Rise of Gru earned another $26 million (-44%) in its third weekend, for $263 million so far. That’s a solid hold and a strong overall gross. Presuming it legs somewhere between Minions 1 and the last Despicable Me, this will likely end between $336 million and $380 million. Ironically, that would theoretically be more than Thor 4.

    In smaller news, Sony’s $24 million budgeted Where the Crawdads Sing (starring Daisy Edgar-Jones, featuring a new Taylor Swift single, and based upon a very popular Delia Owens novel [12 million copies sold] ) debuted with an excellent $17 million over the weekend. Audiences reactions are good (A- CinemaScore, and 4 1/2 stars, 87% positive, 70% recommend on PostTrak).

    The film, about a young woman raising herself in the marshlands after being left alone with her abusive father, is a character-focused story aimed at female adults. Considering this is one of the only “big” movies this summer aimed at adult women (that’s embarrassing), we can expect solid legs for this old-school potboiler/melodrama.

    Not to be outdone, Warner Bros.’ buzzy and well-reviewed Elvis just passed $100 million in the U.S., earning another $7.6 million (-32%) in its 4th weekend. Interestingly, 71% of the audience has been women.

    The musical biopic starring Austin Butler / Tom Hanks, directed by Baz Luhrmann, will soon become Warner Bros.’ biggest U.S. box office earner since Joker ($335 million in 2019) and behind The Batman ($370 million). Fantastic. This is a much needed win for the studio, and for bringing older audiences back to theaters.

    Universal’s The Black Phone also passed $100 million worldwide this week, which propelled the Blumhouse studio’s lifetime total past $5 billion. This acclaimed and buzzy horror flick earned another $5.3 million (-31%) over its 4th weekend, a fantastic drop, despite now debuting on streaming. That gives the $19 million, R-rated flick a $72 million domestic cume, and much more money to come. That is assuming Universal’s own horror film Nope doesn’t take away its audience next weekend.

    And that’s it for the weekend box office. What films are you still interested in seeing or hearing about? 

    I’m personally most hyped for Nope next weekend. To me, the concept of “an epic original alien invasion thriller”, directed by Jordan Peele, sounds like an entertaining time at the movies and a great summer popcorn blockbuster. It also helps it has one of the better trailers I’ve seen so far this year.

    But let’s see if the reviews are good, or if audiences even choose to show up. It cost $68 million to make, so I’m hoping for at least a $40-50 million debut. As always, we’ll see.

  • ANALYSIS – with similar tonal comedy issues, is Marvel’s Thor 4 equivalent to 1997’s Batman and Robin? Hear me out…

    I do enjoy hearing the notion of Thor 4 being compared to Batman 4: Batman & Robin. It’s not an exact comparison, but hear me out…

    With each franchise, the 2nd film is disappointingly received, and a new director was brought in to “fix” the franchise (Taika Waititi and Joel Schumacher respectively) for the 3rd film.

    They were then acclaimed for “saving” the franchise, by making a lighter, more comical 3rd film (Thor: Ragnarok and Batman Forever). Both were successful enough for the studio to allow the filmmaker to do WHATEVER they wanted with the next film, albeit with a time constraint. “Get the fourth film out fast”…

    And then with the 4th film, it wasn’t just the studio to blame; the writer/director was seen as going “TOO FAR” in the comedy and jovial tone, even for general moviegoers. The comedy just didn’t mix as well with the material, undercutting the story, disappointing fans, and weak legs at the box office.

    Hell both Thor 4 and Batman 4 have a bald monochromatic tragic villain, weird jealousies from the sidekicks, a terminal-illness subplot, gay subtext, a campy secondary villain [Zeus / Poison Ivy] who makes uncomfortable sex jokes… the comparisons goes on.

    To me it’s an interesting comparison as far as superhero downgrades from the 3rd-to-4th movie, but also shows there’s light at the end of the tunnel. We’ve gone down this path before. There’s room to improve with the next movie, hopefully by adding a new director.

  • Weekend Box Office (7/10/22) Thor opens with Solid opening weekend, but Lackluster Word of Mouth – Cause for Concern?

    Most franchises would be thrilled to have a comedy-sequel earn mixed-positive reviews, and open 17% bigger than it’s predecessor. But with mixed critical and audience reactions, why did the film not earn the positivity that was expected?

    This new Thor movie was my most anticipated sequel of the summer, given how much the last film Thor: Ragnarok was such a fun comic book blockbuster, and showed there was still life to find in this franchise. That film opened with $123 million in 2017, with fans loving it in context of how its story took place in preparation before the new Avengers. 

    Now it’s 2022, and Thor 4 Love and Thunder opened to $143 million this past weekend, a bit below the optimistic projections from Disney (expecting $150-170 million), but still, a 17% higher debut than Ragnarok is fine.

    It’s the third biggest opening of the year, and for what is considered ”just” a Thor sequel, with little feeling of “you gotta see this immediately”, Love and Thunder opened about in line with what it expected to this weekend.  

    However, there are possible signs of peril going on. The film pulled lousy reviews for a Marvel comedy (69% Rotten Tomatoes) but it’s the weak audience reactions (B+ CinemaScore) that scare me. 

    That’s one of the worst audience reactions for a MCU movie. It’s one thing when a polarizing space odyssey like Eternals earns a B, or a horror fantasy like Doctor Strange 2 earns a B+, as those genres were seen as somewhat “experiments” for Marvel. But Thor is a “generic” crowd pleasing superhero comedy, so its weak reaction is a bad sign. 

    It’s been years after the “Infinity Saga” of Marvel ended with Avengers: Endgame in 2019, where we used to grade each film on a curve as part of a grander achievement in storytelling. Now in 2022 as the MCU begins to lack focus or direction with each project in an ongoing narrative, are audiences beginning to become harsher and more discerning? 

    Is it due to the director Taika Waititi’s absurdist sense of humor? Maybe not every joke is landing.

    Is Marvel overextending itself in pumping out too many movies and Disney+ series? Do we blame the pandemic feature production rush here? 2022 alone has 4 Marvel movies and 5 Disney+ shows.

    Thor: Love and Thunder is another wake-up call to the MCU development department. If films become too cookie-cutter, ticket sales will decline.

    PostTrak, which tracks general audiences seeing the film, has Thor at 3 1/2 stars with a 77% positive, not far from Eternals’ 75%. Kids are ONLY making up 4% of the audience, which is terribly small, given the film’s narrative about saving Asgard’s children. 

    See the proportion of ages and genders as % of the audience:

    Men Over age 25Women Over age 25 Men Under age 25Women Under age 25
    33% 25% 25% 17%

    The most encouraging score for Thor: Love and Thunder is coming from women over 25 at 82% positive, who could be really connecting to Jane Foster’s Cancer storyline and arc in this movie.

    On the bright side, 53% of those who saw Thor: Love and Thunder bought their tickets the day they saw the movie. To me that indicates a lot of people are seeing the movie when they can, with high “walk-up” business and legs for the rest of summer. The film also earned stellar business overseas, earning $302 million Worldwide.

    I’m still expecting a BIG significant 2nd-weekend-drop next week (-65% or more), than it should level out throughout July and August, given the lack of *big* family friendly competition besides DC’s Super Pets until Black Adam in October. 

    Either way, theater owners aren’t complaining, as the Box Office overall has reached pre-pandemic levels! The overall marketplace is around $236 Million, above the same post-4th-of-July weekend in 2019 with $183 million where SpiderMan far From Home was #1. But it’s not just superhero movies helping theaters, thanks to 3 other movies also grossing above $10 million this weekend.

    Minions: Rise of Gru earned another $45.5 million (-57%), with $210 million so far, and the potential to end with $325-335 million in the U.S. On an $80 million budget, this Minions sequel / Despicable Me prequel is already a hit at $400 million Worldwide, even it’s still performing better in America than overseas.

    The #GentleMinions trend likely helped last weekend, and is still assisting the generational nostalgia present here. Expecting Despicable Me 4 in 2024. 

    Top Gun: Maverick is nearing $1.2 billion worldwide, as the $170-million-budgeted legacy Sequel, earned another $15.5 million in its 7th weekend, -40%, the first “normal” drop in its entire run. 

    Still with another $15 million, that’s the third biggest 7th weekend ever behind Titanic ($26 million) and Avatar ($31 million). Still expecting to end with over $700 million in the U.S. Wow!

    Elvis earned another $11 million (-40%) in weekend three for a $91.122 million 17-day cume. With word that the Baz Luhrmann-directed rock-n-roll biopic will NOT be heading to HBO Max after 45 days, it should continue to hold along Top Gun for the rest of summer as “event movies for older adults”.

    This is a great win for Warner Brothers, whose Elvis could end with around $130-140 million domestic, and maybe some Oscar nominations.

    Universal’s Jurassic World Dominion earned $8.41 million (-49%) with a  $350 million 31-day U.S. cume. The $185-million-budgeted Dino finale will arrive on “rent it for $20” PVOD this coming Thursday. Still, history shows that shouldn’t hurt the theatrical run much. 

    We’re still looking at an over/under $370 million domestic end, and a global total of over/under $925 million.

    Universal and Blumhouse’s The Black Phone earned $7.66 million (-37%) for a terrific $62 million domestic and $99 million worldwide so far. This one might drop on PVOD this coming Thursday, but the $19-million-budgeted crowd-pleaser has had solid legs for an original, R-rated thriller. 

    Walt Disney’s Lightyear earned $2.9 million (-55%) in weekend four for a miserable $112.2 million domestic and $202 million global cume. Those who blame its LGBT content should look at those Thor 4 and Jurassic World 3 grosses. The sci-fi actioner/Toy Story spinoff should remain the lowest Pixar grosser ever.

    At this point, Disney is now becoming even more financially reliant on Marvel / Avatar / Star Wars projects, but that’s a conversation for another day.

  • Weekend Box Office (7/4/22) It’s Official! COVID may no longer be a problem for moviegoers

    Hollywood has been worried and biting their lip since COVID about if older adults (55+), and especially kids and families, will return to theaters with the pandemic, especially given the availability of streaming. And now, we’ve just had Top Gun 2, and Minions 2 of all movies, break box office records over Memorial Day and Independence Day, and will likely become the two BIGGEST movies of the summer. Take that, streaming!

    Minions 2: A lesson in social media marketing

    Starting with the raw numbers, #1 was Minions: Rise of Gru, earning $107 million over the 3-Day weekend. Again, the biggest Independence Day opening weekend ever. (beating Transformers 3’s $97 million opening in 2011) And Hollywood was worried this franchise might be getting stale… Throw in positive reviews (71% Rotten Tomatoes) and solid word of mouth (“A” grade from CinemaScore), the film may likely cross a billion after this.

    Has the heart simply grown fonder for these little yellow minions? Or is there generational nostalgia for the Despicable Me franchise, for kids who grew up on it and now are adults? I’m willing to say that’s what happened, with young men dressing up in business suits and posting themselves on TikTok, while making memes and posting about how important the film is. 

    Social Media Trends and games like this will likely be discussed for years to come, compared to another memed about movie Morbius, also joked about earlier this year on social media as the beginning of “summer of Morbius.” Hell Sony even re-released the movie earlier in June in the hopes those jokes would translate to more ticket sales. It didn’t, as that film then bombed again. 

    The key difference here is the ironic Minions memes were joked about and made out of love, while it seemed Morbius was joked out of spite. Lessons learned from social media games…

    Either way, this opening is a huge win for Universal’s marketing team, Illumination Animation’s brand, and is encouraging for upcoming animated films at the box office. 

    Top Gun 2: the film that just won’t stop flying in $

    It’s impossible to predict the legs of Top Gun Maverick, as every optimistic prediction I’ve had for it at the box office just keeps getting topped. It may end up being the biggest movie of the YEAR (give or take Black Panther 2 or Avatar 2), but it’s become a cultural phenomenon, on par with a James Cameron movie, having remarkably small drops throughout the month of June and now July. It’s… just not stopping.

    Another $25.8 million -14% from last week, with $570 million so far and $1.1 billion worldwide. A phenomenal drop over the 4th of July holiday, for what is easily Cruise’s biggest movie ever. What a win for the star/filmmaker/producer.

    It should pass Titanic eventually ($659 million) to become Paramount’s biggest hit ever in the U.S. too, and might be nominated for a few Oscars when all is done. Who knows how high this Tom Cruise jet will keep flying…. Maybe $700?

    #3 Elvis had a nice holiday hold, again encouraging for older audiences returning to movie theaters. The well reviewed (78% on Rotten Tomatoes) and received by audiences (A- CinemaScore) earned another $19 Million over the weekend, and may end around $110-120 million in the U.S. 

    It cost $85 Million to produce, and will likely earn above Rocketman’s $195 Million worldwide finish. It’s a hit for Warner Brothers, and may even earn Austin Butler an Oscar.

    #4 Jurassic World: Dominion (the finale?) had a healthy drop, earning another $15.7 million (-41%) for $331 million so far. It’ll probably end under $1 Billion (blame the fact it earned less money in China, not the word of mouth, audiences thought this movie was sufficiently fine [A- CinemaScore]), so a finish in the $950~ million range is still pretty good, and over 4x it’s budget. Expect another Jurassic movie from Universal down the road, although probably disconnected from this trilogy.

    #5 The crowd pleasing horror-chiller The Black Phone earned $12 over the holiday (-48%), for $50 million so far in the U.S. That’s a big win for Director Scott Derrickson and Universal Studios/BlumHouse, and a reminder how thrillers like this shouldn’t go straight to streaming.


    #6 Speaking of lessons that should be learned from not going straight to streaming, Lightyear, the origin story around the toy who can’t fly, had another ugly fall this weekend, -64% for $6.6 million, with “only” $190 million worldwide. The worst theatrical bomb in Pixar Animation history.

    Yeah, the anticipation of its Disney+ release, and the poor concept killed this. Disney+ received the better, more interesting Pixar flicks (Soul, Luca, Turning Red) to increase streaming subscriptions. But conditioning families to stream animated tentpoles for FREE was a massive long-term mistake, and leads me concerned for their upcoming Strange World sci-fi adventure this Thanksgiving.


    It’s ironic how much Disney and Hollywood in general have emphasized streaming as a priority since COVID began. And now this Summer, the films that were instead delayed and did NOT go to streaming, are soaring to infinity and beyond at the box office. And save for Marvel and likely Avatar, Disney is the one studio that hasn’t yet recovered, partially because they’ve emphasized streaming releases first.
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  • Intro

    Nice to meet everyone on here! My name is Zander Levy, and for the last decade or so I’ve enjoyed writing and the box office, films and their financial success, and what it takes for a studio to succeed! This is my Film Blog, attempting to be thought-provoking.

    As I’m typing this it’s 2022, and over the summer we’ve had SEVERAL big blockbusters over-performing, meeting expectations, and working in saving movie theaters! I think we’re at the point where it’s safe to say COVID doesn’t have much of an effect anymore, at least for the big movies. Keep reading to hear my thoughts Essays, Reviews, Commentary, and original analysis!